Written Commentary
CORN
Prices firmed into today’s close finishing at session highs up $08-$.09 while actually closing higher for the week. Speculative traders were likely lightening up on short positions ahead of the weekend. Farmers seem reluctant to sell at these lower prices while questioning whether this year’s crop will reach the USDA’s lofty yield forecast. Ongoing crop tours into next week will likely support the case for record yields. Hard to make an argument yields could go a whole lot higher. Dec-25 corn has poked back above the $4.00 level for the first time since Tues. bearish report. Huge range in Brazil’s 24/25 production est. with the USDA at 132 mmt, Conab at 137 while AgroConsults is way up at 150 mmt. Exactly where their production falls will have a big impact on US demand for the 25/26 MY. Ethanol margins are strong with the recent drop in corn prices while cattle prices are record high.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mostly higher today with beans up $.13-$.15, meal was steady to $1 lower while oil was up 110-120 points. Speculative buying along with an injection of weather premium were the reasons behind today’s strength. The US balance sheet has much less wiggle room for yields coming in below the current USDA est. of 53.6 bpa forecast given the lower acreage base. Bean and oil spreads firmed while many meal spreads reached fresh lows. Nov-25 beans held support above its 100 day MA at $10.25 ½ overnight. Near term resistance is at this week’s high at $10.49 ¼. Sept-25 bean oil has for now rejected trade below $.52 lb. The short covering rebound in Sept-25 meal appears to have stalled at $290. Spot board crush margins slipped another $.03 ½ to $1.86 ½ while bean oil PV improved to 48.4%. New crop margins slipped $.03 to $1.91 bu. Above normal temperatures this weekend will give way to normal to below normal readings across the NC Midwest and Great lakes region for week 2 of the outlook. Rains over the next 7 days will be heaviest in the northern regions of the Midwest with isolated areas of flooding possible again for areas of WI. Rains elsewhere will be scattered and light. While US corn and soybean areas in drought remain low however some abnormally dry conditions have emerged across the Delta and Southern Midwest. Rains in the region are needed to prevent further late season crop stress. NOPA members processed 195.7 mil. bu. of beans in July-25, at the high end of the range of estimates between 186-195.75 mil. It was the highest monthly crush figure in 6 months and up 7% from July-24. Bean oil stocks slipped slightly to 1.379 bil. lbs, exactly in line with expectations and down 7% YOY. Implied census crush for July-25 is 207 mil. bu. which would bring cumulative crush for the 11 months of the 24/25 MY to 2.249 bil. To reach the current USDA forecast crush in Aug-25 would need to reach 181 mil. bu. up from 167.6 mil. YA and above the record high for August at 177 mil. bu. in 2019.
WHEAT
Prices were little changed today ranging from $.02-$.03 lower in MIAX to $.02-$.03 higher in CGO and KC. Inside trade for Sept-25 CGO and KC with both still holding just above the $5.00 level. Sept-25 MIAX also holding just above this month’s CL at $5.68. A warm/dry trend to continue for much of Europe including the Black Sea region for another 7 days. Week 2 of the outlook offers better prospects for beneficial rain. Western Australia did raise their production forecast 2 mmt to 11.5 mmt however still down nearly 1 mmt from YA. Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry reports grain harvest has reached 24.8 mmt, roughly 13% lower than at this point YA. Of the grain harvested, 19 mmt is wheat, down from 21.7 mmt YA.
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