Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Grain bears hoping for bullish USDA report to sell. US stocks are higher. USD is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Gold is up on new 39 pct tariff on imports of one kilo gold bars. Trump will soon meet with Putin.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 9..93. Dalian soybean, soyoil and palmoil were higher. Palmoil is near 1 month high. US old crop soybean export commit is near 1,892 mil bu vs USDA export goal is 1,875. New trade deal with Asian soybean buyers is helping demand for US soybeans especially Indonesia. Trade est US 2025 soybean crop at 4,365 mil bu vs USDA July est of 4,335, US 2025/26 soybean carryout at 439 mil bu vs USDA July 310. Brazil soybean export premiums remain firm with China adding to November needs. World soymeal values holding near historical support and $300.
CORN
CZ is near 4.06. Dalian corn futures were lower and new 2025 weekly low close. US old crop corn export commit is near 2,780 mil bu vs USDA goal of 2,750. USDA announced 106 mt US corn to Mexico and 105 mt to Guatemala. US new crop corn sales were better than expected and a 4 year high. Trade est US 2025 corn crop at 15,979 mil bu vs USDA July est of 15,705, US 2025/26 corn carryout at 1,902 mil bu vs USDA July 1,660.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.38. KWZ is near 5.40. MWZ is near 5.97. Wheat is supported by good US export sales and talk of lower Black Sea export supplies. US wheat export commit is near 10.2 mmt vs 8.5 ly. Nigeria switched 3 HRW cargoes to US from Russia due to Russia quality issues. New trade deal with Asian wheat buyers is helping demand for US wheat especially Indonesia. Australia is normal exporter to Asian buyers. Australia futures are at new contract lows. Trade est US 2025 wheat crop at 1,920 mil bu vs USDA July est of 1,929, US 2025/26 wheat carryout at 882 mil bu vs USDA July 890.
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