Written Commentary
Grains ended mixed. US stocks were higher. US Dollar was lower. Crude was lower. Gold was higher. Headline trading continues due to uncertainty of US tariffs and those countries retaliation. Midday GFS shifted rains south. GFS breaks down the ridge in US SW after July 29-30. Ridge riding rains drop across NE, N plains, MN and areas east of Mississippi river. Grain futures risk lower prices due to potential record US corn and soybean crops and demand risk as tariff deadline nears.
CORN
CU ended near 4.03. Weekly US corn exports were 983 mt and below the lower end of trade estimate. Total exports are near 58.8 mmt vs 45.6 ly. USDA goal is 69.8 mmt vs 57.2 ly. USDA estimates total World 2024/25 corn exports at 192.5 mmt vs 192.5 ly. USDA est China imports at 5.0 mmt vs 23.4 ly. USDA estimâtes Brazil 24/25 corn exports at 43.0 mmt vs 38.2 ly. This includes a Brazil crop est of 132 mmt vs 119 ly. USDA est Brazil 2025/26 corn crop at 131 mmt with some est closer to 134. US farmers remain reluctant sellers of new crop corn.
SOYBEANS
SU ended near 10.09. Soymeal is below 275. World soymeal basis levels are sharply lower on too much supply. Soyoil ended higher on talk of increase demand. Weekly US soybean exports were 364 mt and at the mid point of trade estimate. Total exports near 46.7 mmt vs 42.3 ly. USDA goal is 50.7 mmt vs 46.2 ly. USDA estimates total World 2024/25 soybean exports at 180.6 mmt vs 177.7 ly. USDA est China imports at 106.5 mmt vs 112.0 ly. June China soybean imports were 12.2 mmt or up 9 pct vs ly. China continues to buy Brazil soybeans. USDA est Brazil 24/25 soybean crop at 169 mmt with exports at 102.1. USDA est Brazil 25/26 soybean crop at 175 mmt with exports at 112.0 mmt. US farmers remain reluctant sellers of new crop soybeans.
WHEAT
WU ended near 5.42 in mostly range bound trade. Weekly US old crop wheat exports were up to 732 mt. Total exports are near 3.0 mmt vs 2.6 ly. USDA goal is 23.1 mmt vs 22.4 ly. USDA estimates total World 2025/26 wheat exports at 213.0 mmt vs 205.5 ly. Bangladesh signed trade deal for 700 mt of US wheat annually for next 5 years. Bangladesh normal buys Black Sea wheat wile buying 100-130 mt from US.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
