Written Commentary
CORN
Prices turned steady to $.02 lower as spreads weakened. The Goldman roll ends later this week. After rejecting trade below $4.30 yesterday, July-25 today rejected trade back above $4.40. After higher trade overnight, prices across the agricultural space quickly lost enthusiasm as so far no details of purchase obligations by China for Ag. specific goods have emerged. Markets seem to shrug off EIA data showing ethanol production LW matching a record weekly high at 1,120 tbd, or 329 mil. gallons. There was 112 mil. bu. of corn used in the production process, or 15.97 mil. bu. per day, above the 15.2 needed to reach the USDA forecast of 5.50 bil. Despite the much higher than expected production, ethanol stocks slipped to 23.7 mil. barrels, below expectations and the lowest since late 2024. Implied gasoline usage spiked 11% last week to 9.17 tbd, and was up 1.4% YOY.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed across the soybean complex. Beans ranged from $.02-$.07 lower with spot July the downside leading making new lows into the close. Meal was down $1-$2 while oil was up 20-25 points. Spreads weakened in beans and meal while slightly firmer in oil. July soybeans failed to trade above the previous sessions high for the first time in over a week while closing right at its 100 day MA. Nov-25 beans continue to consolidate near its 50 and 100 day MA’s. July bean oil has stretched out to a new high for the month with resistance at the 50 day MA at 48.36. Spot July meal remains stuck between $290-$300 per ton for 7 weeks. Pres. Trump took to social media stating China will supply the US with rare earth materials and magnets while the US will allow Chinese students access to US Universities. US tariffs will remain at 55% for Chinese imports while China’s tariffs on US imports will hold at 10%. At midday US Treasury Sec. Bessent stated that trade negotiations with China will most likely be a much longer progress as the US looks to narrow the $295 bil. trade deficit from 2024 with the world’s 2nd largest economy. US weather remains mostly favorable as the nation’s midsection will see a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next few weeks.
WHEAT
Prices were mixed in CGO and KC while closing at session highs up $.05-$.06 in MGEX futures. July-25 MGEX closed back above its 100 day MA however held within yesterday’s range. Inside trade for July-25 CGO as well. The USDA has raised their WW production forecast every year in the June report in the last decade. A South Korean Feed group reportedly bought around 60k mt of feed wheat at $255/mt CF for Oct. shipment. Taiwan is reportedly seeking just over 95k mt of US milling wheat for Aug/Sept shipment. Offer deadline is tomorrow.
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