Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
Ag Fundamentals:
The July corn/wheat spread has firmed from -$2.50 in June to -85.5¢ today. It reached as high as -50¢ in late April. This may cause more wheat to make its way into feed rations. I would then make the jump to expect the USDA to lower their corn feed and residual usage due to more wheat in the mix. The May WASDE report estimated 5.75 billion bushels of corn used for feed and 120 million bushels of wheat. Wheat leading the grains higher this morning, up over 12¢ to start the day, corn chasing – up a nickel.
Weather:
Rain makes grain. Precip this morning is covering the southern Mississippi River Valley, Arkansas, eastern Kansas, Missouri, Most of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, and Minnesota. Basically the majority of the US growing regions. Planting progress likely to take a couple days off in some areas to let the fields dry. US producers were able to gain 16% corn planting progress last week to put them at 78% done, 5% ahead of the 5-year average pace. Soybeans advanced 18%, now at 66% done, to put them 13% ahead of their 5-year pace. Areas getting rain today will receive 1-2 inches and should be back in the fields by the weekend. However, Missouri and some of the southern growing regions will receive more rain Saturday that will put most of southern Missouri out for a few more days.
The July Corn/Wheat Spread has firmed from -$2.50 in June to -85¢ today. The spread firmed up to -50¢ in late April.
Central US Rain is expected to record over 6 inches in some areas of southern Missouri and northern Arkansas The totals below are for now through Thursday next week.
Canadian Median CPI (Consumer Price Index) is on the rise again. The change in the average price of consumer goods rose 3.2% since April of 2024. Food purchased from stores in Canada are up 3.8% year over year.
Export & World News
South Korea bought around 50K MT of wheat to be sourced from the US.
Malaysian palm oil futures were up 28 ringgit overnight, now at 3910.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.35 (expanded $0.55); Soybeans $0.75 (expanded $1.15); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
Weather Outlook
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