Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are slightly lower. Crude is lower but near $62.88. US Dollar is lower. Gold is lower. US CPI was below estimates. Trump making deals in Middle East. Russia increase missile attacks on Ukraine. U.S. central and SW Plains will be dry. Central U.S. heat wave will continue into mid-week followed by cooling. Rain is likely in the central Midwest from NE and KS to N IL and IA next week.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.75. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were higher. Soybean futures continue to trade near USDA report premium. South America soymeal premiums continue to dive lower and looking for demand. BON found support due to fact House GOP tax bill includes extending 45Z tax credit 4 years. US April NOPA crush is estimated at 184.6 mil bu vs 169.4 ly. Soyoil stocks are estimated at 1,498 mil lbs vs 1,832 ly. Soyoil also supported by potential of lower Canada canola oil imports. Trade still feels USDA is too high in their estimate of US 2025/36 soybean exports and too low in carryout estimate.
CORN
CN is near 4.41. CN-CZ spread is now near 1. Dalian corn futures were higher. US export corn prices are competitive but July forward there is more competition especially from South America. CN saw selling due to rapid planting pace and talk of favorable weather. By Sunday US corn planting could be near 75 percent. Trade still feels USDA is too high in their estimate of US 2025/36 corn exports and too low in carryout estimate.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.15. KWN is near 5.11. MWN is near 5.76. China wheat areas and Australia are dry. First day of annual Kansas wheat tour estimated yield at 50.5 vs 49.9 ly and 5 year average of 45.1. USDA estimated KS crop at 345 mil bu with yield of 50.0. NE tour group est NE crop at 32.3 mil bu, equal to USDA estimate. CO tour group est wheat crop at 65 mil bu vs USDA 71. There is talk that Morocco bought US HRW wheat for May-June. HRS futures still hold premium to HRW and SRW due to talk that combined US and Canada HRS exports could be 33.0 mmt and 2nd highest ever. 2020/21 was record 33.2.
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