Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
Ag Fundamentals: Tariffs between China and the US are suspended for 90 days. That puts a deadline for a new deal in mid-August, which is near the time of year China begins to focus their purchasing power toward US soybeans. Both Countries dropped their tariff rates 115%. The US took their rates from 145% to 30% (10% universal + 20% fentanyl-related tariff), and China dropped from 125% to 10% for the 90-day period. Soybeans rallied 16¢ overnight following the news of a pause. A US flash sale of 120K MT of soybeans to Mexico was reported this morning (24K MT for 24/25 marketing year and 96K MT for 25/26 marketing year). The USDA will release the May WASDE report today at 11:00am CST. Due to the timing of the 90-day pause and the market now assuming a trade deal will finalize before new crop is cut, many believe ag markets will remain supported today despite any bearish news the report may offer. The Commitment of Traders report on Friday afternoon (shown below) had managed money mostly sellers apart from Chicago wheat and canola. Currencies are in focus as the news broke of a trade deal between China and the US. The dollar surged to test 102.0 on the index and all other global currencies are red this morning.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders Report
Change in Managed Money Positions
Corn: -57,436
Soybeans: -16,332
Soybean Oil: -6,649
Soybean Meal: -5,230
Chi Wheat: +7,681
KC Wheat: -4,971
Canola: +14,080
Export & World News
This Morning, The USDA reported a 120K MT sale of soybeans to Mexico (24K Mt for 24/25 marketing year and 96K MT for 25/26 MY). Last week the USDA reported a sale of 288K MT of corn to Mexico (95K MT for 24/25 marketing year and 193K MT of 25/26 MY). The US also announced a sale of 120K MT of soybeans to Pakistan and 60K Mt of soybean meal to South Korea.
Malaysian palm oil futures are closed for holiday.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.70 (expanded $1.05); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
Weather Outlook
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