Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Crude is higher and near $58. Crude watching trade talk optimism. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are higher. Gold is lower. Gold is reacting to US/UK trade deal. US fed kept rates unchanged. Fed Chairman sighted concern about higher inflation and lower jobs a reason keeping rates unchanged. US rains south and dry north. Midwest rains next week. EU rains south and dry north. Russia adding rains. China wheat areas are dry but 20-30 pct of area could see some rain.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.44 and below 20 and 200 DMA. SN may be up on talk China buying 12-13 Brazil soybean cargoes and 3-4 Argentina for June-Aug. Brazil farmer increase selling soybeans. Dalian soybean and soyoil futures were lower. Palmoil higher on talk of increase India buying. BON has dropped on lack of new news on domestic and export demand. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 200-500 mt. Trade is looking for US 24/25 soybean carryout near 369 vs USDA 374 and 25/26 362. 24/25 key is US exports. Trade is also looking for US 2025 soybean crop at 4,338 mil bu vs 4,366 ly.
CORN
CN is near 4.49. CN-CZ spread is now near 8. CN below March lows on concern about US export demand. Weekly US export sales are est at 700-1,400 mt. Trade is looking for US 24/25 carryout near 1,443 vs USDA 1,465 and 25/26 2,020. Trade is also looking for US 2025 corn crop at 15,757 mil bu vs 14,867 ly. Argentina corn export prices dropped below $200. Brazil farmers increase selling corn before safrina harvest. US weather dry north, wet Delta and SE. No worries yet.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.39. KWN is near 5.34. MWN is near 6.07. Rains are helping US HRW crop but could be adding quality concerns to SRW. US farmer is selling SRW. US north plains, China and Australia are dry. Australia futures are higher while Argentina are lower. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at -100 to 150 mt old crop and 200-400 mt new. Trade is looking for US 2025/26 wheat carryout near 863. Trade is also looking for US 2025 wheat crop at 1,885 mil bu vs 1,971 ly.
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