Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Grains trading headline news that US and China agreed to talk in Geneva this weekend. Both sides would benefit from easing of trade relations. India and Pakistan are increasing war conflict. Crude is higher and near $60. US Dollar is lower. US stocks are higher. Gold is lower. Gold is reacting to US/China talks. China lowered rates and made Bank lending easier. China keeps adding to gold reserves. US March trade deficit was record with companies front loading imports. Switzerland impots were record due to mostly gold imports. US Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged. US rains south and dry north. EU rains south and dry north. Russia dry.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.54 and above 20,50,100 and 200 DMA. SN is reacting to news of US/China talks. SN rallied late Monday on China pricing Brazil purchases. Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures were higher. Palmoil lower on seasonal increase in production and lower exports. Trade is looking for US 24/25 soybean carryout near 369 vs USDA 374 and 25/26 362. 24/25 key is US exports. Trade is also looking for US 2025 soybean crop at 4,338 mil bu vs 4,366 ly. EU oilseed imports are up 8 pct vs ly, meal are up 11 pct and vegoil down 24 pct.
CORN
CN is near 4.62.Talk of China/US is rallying futures. CN-CZ spread is now near 16. CN back testing 200 DMA resistance. Trade is looking for US 24/25 carryout near 1,443 vs USDA 1,465 and 25/26 2,020. Trade is also looking for US 2025 corn crop at 15,757 mil bu vs 14,867 ly. S Korea bought feed corn near recent flat price and basis lows. US corn export price near $210 vs Ukraine $250, Argentina $212. Ukraine Sep prices are near $210. EU corn imports are up 10 pct vs ly. Exports down 46 pct vs ly. US weather dry north, wet Delta and SE.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.43 WN back testing 200 DMA resistance. Trade is looking for US 2025/26 wheat carryout near 863. Trade is also looking for US 2025 wheat crop at 1,885 mil bu vs 1,971 ly. Okla crop tour est 2025 crop at 101 mil bu vs 108 ly. There is talk China bought Canada wheat.
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