Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
Tariff Talk Tries Traders
May Crude trade is near unchanged this morning, as the trade does not know what to make of the latest comments from President Trump about tariffs. Trump said on Sunday that he would impose secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on buyers of Russian oil if he feels Moscow is blocking his efforts to end the war in Ukraine. This previous announcement that any nation buying Venezuelan crude would be subject to an additional 25% tariff appeared to have an immediate effect on trade, especially on the part of Chinese buyer. Trump also threatened Iran on Sunday with bombing and secondary tariffs if Tehran did not come to an agreement with Washington over its nuclear program. These announcements may be losing their rhetorical effect. Russia’s defense ministry said today that Ukraine had attacked Russian energy facilities in the Bryansk region over the past 24 hours, which also lowers the potential for a peace deal. Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net sellers of 4,669 contracts of crude oil for the week ending March 25, reducing their net long to 91,844.
NATURAL GAS
May Natural Gas gapped higher overnight and traded to its highest level since March 21, as the market continued its correction of its steep selloff from the March high. The weather forecast has turned cooler for the eastern half of the US, which suggests the US could see a larger than normal withdrawal from storage in a couple of weeks. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts show below normal temperatures extending from the Great Plains to the East Coast and above normal from the Rockies to the West Coast. This is in contrast to a warmer trend that was in the forecast last week. Reports of Ukraine hitting some Russian energy infrastructure and Trump’s frustration with Putin suggest a peace deal is more elusive than previously hoped. Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net sellers of 24,649 contracts of natural gas for the week ending March 25, reducing their net long to 40,154.
PRODUCT MARKETS
The products are seeing a similar back and forth action as the markets appear to be getting tired of tariff talk. Friday’s Commitments of Traders Report showed managed money traders were net buyers of 5,119 contracts of RBOB for the week ending March 25, increasing their net long to 34,303. Two weeks prior, the net long had fallen to 6,034 contracts, which was the smallest since 2017. For ULSD, managed money traders were net buyers of 7,394 contracts, reducing their net short to 5,088.
>Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
