Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is slightly higher. Holding gains on hopes of China stimulus. Gold is lower.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 9.95. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were higher. Trade volume could remain limited due to Holiday. N and C Brazil weather remains favorable for crops and still supports a record soybean crop. Argentina weather is dry. January rains will be needed to insure a normal crop. Weekly US export sales are est at 1,370-1,800 mt vs 1,424 last week, US fob soybean prices is near $403 vs Brazil $377. Soymeal rallied on short covering after word of a fire shutting down a US crush plant in Cairo, Illinois. Soymeal futures hit 3 month high. Soyoil as pct of crush hit 3 month low. Market will also begin to position for USDA January reports of supply and demand, Dec 1 stocks and final US 2024 crop sizes.
CORN
CH is near 4.52. Dalian corn futures were higher. Managed funds were big buyers of futures post US holiday on a drier Argentina forecast. For now, soil moistures levels are adequate. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 1,000-1,650 mt vs 1,174 last week. FOB US corn export prices are near $213 vs Argentina $212, Brazil $220 and Ukraine $221. Market will begin to position for USDA January reports of supply and demand, Dec 1 stocks and final US 2024 crop sizes.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.38. KWH is near 5.46. MWH is near 5.90. Algeria bought 1.17 mmt of wheat in their tender. Most look for Black Sea origin. Lower Russia’s grain export quota could offer support. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 250-600 mt vs 457 last week. US SRW fob prices are near $236 vs Russia $240 and Germany $250. Deficit markets are making special efforts to enhance their production and milling capacity. They should maintain a competitive world wheat export market. USDA January reports may not have a big impact on prices.
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