Written Commentary
CORN
Outside of Dec-24 being down $.04, prices closed steady. Dec-24 likely seeing long liquidation ahead of Friday’s 1st notice day. Inside day for Mch-25 corn as it held very near its 100 day MA at $4.27. Global weather remains non-threatening. The US $$$ index plunged to a 2 week low pressured by falling US Treasury yields. Ethanol production was a record high at 1,119 tbd, or 329 mil. gallons, up from 326 mil. the previous week and up 10.7% from YA. Corn usage at 112.5 mil. bu., or 16.1 mil. bu. per day, was well above the 14.8 mbd needed to reach the USDA forecast of 5.450 bil. In the MY to date there has been 1.269 bil. bu. used, or 15.3 mbd, an annualized pace of 5.580 bil. If LW’s pace held over the last 40 weeks of the MY, corn usage would reach 5.80 bil. bu. Ethanol stocks rose to an 8 week high at 22.9 mil. barrels, above the 21.4 mb from YA. The current USDA corn usage forecast is too low. Implied gas demand rose 1% to 8.506 mbd, and was up 3.7% YOY. US corn acres in drought fell another 7% to 52%, down from 81% only 4 weeks ago.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mixed with beans $.02-$.05 higher, meal up $2-$4, while oil plunged 160-185 points. Bean spreads have firmed while spreads for both products weakened. New lows for meal spreads ahead of Friday’s FND. Jan-25 beans continue to chop around between $9.75-$10. Jan-25 meal stopped just shy of this week’s high at $299.50. Jan-25 oil rejected trade above its 100 day MA, however held support above this week’s low at 40.64. Spot board crush margins were crushed, down $.20 bu. to $.98 ½ , a 6 month low. Export demand for US oil should remain robust with prices near a record large discount to palm oil. Much of Argentina and Brazil are forecast to see a good mix of rain and sunshine thru the first full week of December keeping production prospects high. This morning the USDA announced the sale of 132k mt (4.8 mil. bu.) of soybeans to China. US soybean acres in drought fell another 6% to 47%, down from its recent peak of 73% only 4 weeks ago.
WHEAT
Prices were generally $.10-$.15 lower across all 3 classes today. Dec-24 KC was $.24 while Chicago was down only $.02 ahead of FND. Mch-25 contracts for all 3 classes hovered very near the lows for the month and just above their contract lows from August. Reduced tensions in the Black Sea region, improved conditions in the US along with lower basis levels in Argentina all weighed on wheat prices. Precipitation will be limited across the nation’s midsection over the next week to 10 days as a much colder pattern settles in over the central and eastern thirds of the continental US. Algeria reportedly bought between 140-150k mt of milling wheat from the Black Sea region for around $267/mt CF. In addition Tunisia purchased 100k mt each of soft wheat and durum wheat. The average price for the soft wheat was just below $259/mt CF and just over $348/mt CF for the durum. US winter wheat acres in drought plunged another 12% to 28%, well off the 62% peak from 4 weeks ago. Spring wheat area in drought also dropped 8% to 34%.
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