Written Commentary
CORN
The market was very quiet today and closed near unchanged with a very small 3 ½ cent trading range on December. USDA did announce a new sale of 126,000 tonnes of corn to Unknown this morning. Today’s ethanol production was 1.038 million barrels, above guesses of 1.018. However, ethanol stocks were bullish and dropped sharply coming in at 22.154 million barrels, a 10-month low and way below expectations of 23.288. December corn support is 416 and the USDA supply/demand report coming on Friday morning is expected to show a very slight reduction in corn yield, production and ending stocks. LSEG lowered US production 1% to 384.0 million tonnes, compared to USDA’s September figure of 385.7. The US Dollar continued its recent rise today and hit its highest level since mid-August. Weekly export sales tomorrow morning are expected in a range of 900,000–1,700,000 tonnes.
Ethanol average daily production for the week ending October 4 averaged 1.038 million barrels. This was up 2.3% from last week and up 3.4% from last year. The 5-year average for this week is 0.960 million barrels per day. Ethanol production for the week was 7.266 million barrels. Ethanol stocks were 22.154 million barrels. This was the lowest since December 8, 2023. This was down 5.6% from last week and up 2.9% from last year. The 5-year average stocks for this week is 20.843 million barrels. The amount of corn used for the week is estimated at 104.73 million bushels. Cumulative corn use for the crop year has reached 506.652 million bushels. Corn use needs to average 104.54 million bushels per week to meet the USDA’s marketing year forecast of 5.450 billion bushels.
SOYBEANS
Bean prices closed with slight gains having bounced off moving average support this morning for the 2nd day in a row after steady/lower closes for the last 7 sessions. The weather trend in Brazil and Argentina is showing increased chances for dryness relief over the next 2 weeks as monsoon rains in Brazil slowly develop. Brazilian bean planting conditions will be better for the 2nd half of October and while planting delays do not always correlate with lower crop potential, the delays could negatively impact Brazil’s corn crop next spring. US crop weather will continue to be dry for the next 10 days. Grupo Potencial says they will be expanding their Brazilian biodiesel facility to make it the world’s largest. Other market moving news is limited today. Weekly export sales tomorrow morning are expected in a range of 800,000–1,700,000 million tonnes in beans, 100,000–400,000 tons for meal and 0–20,000 tonnes for bean oil.
WHEAT
The wheat market closed higher as Ukrainian wheat export quotes are firming after the 2 attacks this week on ships carrying Ukrainian grain. Furthermore, the Russian Ag Ministry this morning has called for an emergency meeting of grain exporters on Friday to talk about potential export restrictions. Any export restrictions would be a significant game-changer for the wheat market but may make sense as weather in southern Russia is too dry and the seeding window is about to close. Russia has been hesitant to lower crop potential in the face of the adverse weather but calling for export restrictions would indicate they are very worried about production. The results of Friday’s meeting will be watched very closely. Yesterday’s Algeria purchase of 510,000-570,000 tonnes is expected to be filled mostly by Russian wheat. LSEG lowered their Australian wheat production estimate by 2% to 31.4 million tonnes due to dryness and frost and lowered Argentina 1% to 17.1 million tonnes. Weekly export sales tomorrow morning are expected in a range of 250,000–550,000 tonnes.
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