Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher and trying to bounce off sharp selloff on Tuesday. There is talk of possible Israel attack on Iran and new China stimulus. On Tuesday, there was some talk of a Israel and Hezbollah ceasefire. Florida is bracing for hurricane impact. Gold sold off Tuesday on talk US Fed may not drop rates as fast as expected.
SOYBEANS
Brazil weather maps are mixed with EU wetter than GFS. USDA report is Friday. Most look for a higher US 2024/25 soybean carryout due to lower export est. USDA announced 166 mt US soybeans to China. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower. Brazil Jan-Sep soybean exports were 89.5 mmt vs 87.2 ly. China exports were 65.4 mmt vs 61.7 ly. US exports are 3.3 mmt vs 3.4 ly. China is 1.2 vs 2.0. Rest od World 2.1 vs 1.3 ly. Brazil President is expected to sign “ fuel of the future” law which will increase biodiesel production.
CORN
Corn futures are higher. Brazil weather maps are mixed with EU wetter than GFS. Some are looking for increase US farmer selling over next 10 days. USDA October report is Friday. Most look for a higher US 2024 crop to offset lower carryin. Most also look for higher US 2024/25 corn carryout due to lower export est. China corn futures were lower. Brazil President to sign law increasing biodiesel production. Some support comes from talk of lower EU and Black Sea corn supply.
WHEAT
Wheat futures are higher. WZ-WH spread widening due to concern over SRW demand. US south plains and Black Sea are dry. EU is wet and cool. Russia wheat price have traded higher, but so has World prices. This continues to leave Russia competitive for buyers. Saudia Arabia bought 307 mt believed to be from Russia. Algeria also bought 500-550 mt believed to be Black Sea. US exports up 35 pct vs ly and USDA goal up 17 pct.
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