Global Ag News for Sept 17.24

TOP HEADLINES

NOPA August US soybean crush drops near 3-yr low at 158.008 mln bushels

The U.S. soybean crush dropped below all trade estimates in August to the lowest point for a single month in nearly three years, while soyoil stocks fell to a 10-month low, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday.

NOPA members, which account for around 95% of soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 158.008 million bushels of the oilseed last month, the lowest since September 2021. That was down 13.6% from the 182.881 million bushels crushed in July and down 2.1% from the August 2023 crush of 161.453 million bushels.

The crush was below all trade estimates and far short of the average estimate of 171.325 million bushels, based on a Reuters survey of nine analysts. Estimates ranged from 162.000 million to 178.000 million bushels, with a median of 173.000 million bushels.

Analysts had expected a more modest seasonal drop in the processing pace as crushers normally idle some facilities for maintenance and repairs ahead of the autumn harvest. But the processing rate in August slowed to just 5.097 million bushels a day, the slowest daily pace since July 2021, according to NOPA data.

Soyoil stocks among NOPA members as of Aug. 31 fell to a 10-month low of 1.138 billion pounds, down from the 1.499 billion pounds on hand at the end of July and below year-ago stocks of 1.250 billion pounds. Analysts, on average, had expected stocks to dip to 1.356 billion pounds, according to estimates from seven analysts. Soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 1.245 billion to 1.444 billion pounds, with a median of 1.350 billion pounds.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 1/2 in SRW, up 4 3/4 in HRW, up 5 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans up 1/2; Soymeal down $1.20; Soyoil up 0.38.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 12 3/4 in SRW, down 14 3/4 in HRW, down 10 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/4; Soybeans down 1 1/4; Soymeal down $0.30; Soyoil up 0.56.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 30 1/2 in SRW, up 20 in HRW, up 24 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 10; Soybeans up 5; Soymeal up $9.60; Soyoil down 2.52.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.3% in SRW, down 8.8% in HRW, down 13.6% in HRS; Corn is down 12.8%; Soybeans down 22.3%; Soymeal down 17.5%; Soyoil down 16.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 24) Soybeans up 1 yuan; Soymeal up 13; Soyoil up 54; Palm oil up 34; Corn down 4 — Malaysian Palm is down 44.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 44 ringgit (-1.15%) at 3770.

There were changes in registrations (-54 Corn). Registration total: 220 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 126 Corn; 232 Soybeans; 382 Soyoil; 200 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 16 were: SRW Wheat down 6,243 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,556, Corn up 9,826, Soybeans up 2,530, Soymeal up 3,874, Soyoil up 1,284.

 

Brazil: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana:  Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias:  Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Friday.

 

Argentina: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Mostly dry through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Mostly dry through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

 

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated showers through Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Monday, above to well above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

 

Midwest: West: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. East: Isolated showers east Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, above to well above normal Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for Sept. 16 had funds: net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,000 corn, sellers of 3,000 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 132,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for shipment to unknown destinations in the 2024/25 marketing year.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN, BARLEY TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase about 160,000 metric tons of corn and 35,000 tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog issued an international tender to buy about 450,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

TODAY

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Conditions 65% G/E, Soybeans 64%

Highlights from the report:

• Corn 65% G/E vs 64% last week, and 51% a year ago
• Soybeans 64% G/E vs 65% last week, and 52% a year ago
• Winter wheat planted 14% vs 6% last week, and 13% a year ago
• Corn harvest 9% vs 5% last week, and 8% a year ago
• Soybeans harvested 6% vs 4% a year ago
• Spring wheat harvest 92% G/E vs 85% last week, and 91% a year ago
• Cotton 39% G/E vs 40% last week, and 29% a year ago
• Cotton harvested 10% vs 8% last week, and 9% a year ago

 

US Inspected 521k Tons of Corn for Export, 401k of Soybeans

In week ending Sept. 12, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Corn: 521k tons vs 839k the previous wk, 676k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 401k tons vs 365k the previous wk, 430k a yr ago
• Wheat: 557k tons vs 621k the previous wk, 423k a yr ago

 

Paraguay Soy Group Sees 1M Tons Left to Ship from 2024 Harvests

Paraguay’s soy industry will probably finish exporting approximately 1 million metric tons of soy remaining from this year’s harvests by the end of October, according to Hugo Pastore, executive director of grain and oilseed export group Capeco.

• Capeco estimates farmers produced more than 10 million metric tons of soy during 2024
  • Soy continues to be shipped down the Paraguay, Parana rivers thanks to dredging in recent years
  • Farmers bought less equipment this year as they struggle to make money amid low soy prices
  • “The grower who owns his own land faces the challenge of turning a profit this season. Those who work rented lands are in a very difficult situation,” Pastore said in an interview
• Planting of the first soy harvest for 2025 is expected to finish in October after a slow start due to dry weather
• Soy industry is concerned that production has plateaued in recent years
  • “In Capeco we are working to identify regions where agriculture could be expanded,” Pastore said
  • Some farmers in lower yielding soy areas like San Pedro and Concepcion are ditching soy for ranching

 

 Brazil soy planting starts but dry weather hampers fieldwork

Brazil’s soybean planting for the 2024/25 season has started but remains limited to small areas in the states of Parana and Mato Grosso, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, as dry and hot weather conditions are holding back work in the fields.

Farmers have been struggling with low humidity levels and high temperatures, AgRural said in a statement, adding that planting as of Sept. 12 had covered 0.06% of the total expected area.A year earlier, 0.15% of the area had been planted.

“Forecasts of light rain encouraged planting ‘in the dust’ in some plots in the west of Parana state, but most producers chose not to take the risk,” the consultancy said.

“In Mato Grosso the situation is more critical, as weather forecasts show no rainfall this week,” it added.

AgRural also noted that farmers in Brazil’s key center-south region had planted 19% of the expected area for the 2024/25 first corn crop as of last Thursday, up 4 percentage points from the previous week but short of the previous season’s 20%.

Brazil plants corn all year round and the first crop usually represents about 20% of national output, while the second crop – which is planted later, after soybeans are harvested on the same fields – accounts for some 75%.

 

France Cuts Soft-Wheat Harvest Estimate to 25.8m Tons

France’s soft-wheat production is now seen at 25.8m tons for the current season, the country’s Agriculture Ministry said in a report.

• That’s down from from 26.3m tons estimated last month and almost 27% below last season’s total
• Cites smaller yields and area due to unfavorable weather
• Barley output seen at 10m tons, down from 10.4m tons estimated last month
• Durum wheat production pegged at 1.2m tons, similar to previous outlook
• Corn harvest expected at 14.4m tons, up 11% from a year earlier

 

US Soy Is So Cheap That Even Rival Argentina Is Buying It

• USDA reports first sale of US soybeans to Argentina since 2019
• Move comes as record harvest makes US soy less expensive

Argentina, the world’s biggest exporter of processed soybean meal and oil, is set to bring in whole beans from the US for the first since 2019 as declining American prices make them the cheapest in the world.

The South American nation has purchased 88,400 metric tons of beans to be shipped during the current season, according to the US Department of Agriculture. The move comes as the harvest of a record US crop was getting underway.

“It surprised the hell out of me,” said John Baize, an independent analyst who also advises the US Soybean Export Council.

US shipments from New Orleans in October, for example, were about $395 per ton on a free-on-board basis, about $16 per ton cheaper than Argentina’s soy, according to Commodity3 data.

Crushers in Argentina, including Glencore’s Viterra Inc., Cargill Inc. and Louis Dreyfus Co., often operate with elevated idle capacity after industrial expansions over the past two decades outpaced growth in farm output as growers contend with high taxes and exchange-rate distortions.

The crushers typically supplement local supplies with purchases from regional neighbors, mainly Paraguay and Brazil, with these imports particularly high this season, according to the Rosario Board of Trade.

Low water levels on the Paraguay River now are limiting the volume of shipments on barges to Argentina. That backdrop might have prompted the sale of US soy to Argentina, or it could be a reporting error in USDA data, Baize said. Deliveries of local Argentine supplies also tend to slow around this time of year following the harvest that is competed around June.

The USDA said Monday the transaction is being reviewed and any necessary corrections will be made in its Sept. 19 export sales report.

 

Canada wheat, oat production up, canola down, according to StatsCan survey

Wheat production in Canada grew by 4.1% in 2024 compared to 2023, while canola production was down by 1.1%, according to a Statistics Canada survey released on Monday, based in part on satellite and agroclimatic data.

Oat production in Canada increased by 14.2% in 2024 compared to 2023, and barley production was down by 14.7%. Durum output, the wheat used to make pasta, was pegged at 6.0 million tonnes.

Statscan said lower-than-average precipitation and high temperatures have resulted in poorer crop conditions on the Prairies, though conditions were up in some areas compared to a year earlier. Some areas of Ontario have been impacted by excess moisture and high temperatures, while Atlantic provinces have seen warmer weather and less precipitation.

Production estimates for Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta are calculated using model-based yields. Estimates for Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and British Columbia are all carried forward from the July estimates of principal field crop production.

 

India Aug. Oilmeals Exports Fall to 314,363 Tons

India’s oilmeals exports fell to 314,363 tons in August from 451,794 tons in July, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• Rapeseed meal exports fell to 126,610 tons from 234,507 tons in July
• Soymeal exports fell to 156,961 tons from 195,162 tons in July
• Rice-bran extract exports were 14,039 tons
• Castorseed meal exports fell to 15,567 tons from 22,125 tons in July

 

Ukraine Corn and Sunflowers Hit by Severe Summer Drought: MARS

Ukraine’s intense drought damaged the yield potential of its summer crops, especially in the central and eastern regions, the European Union’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said in a report.

• Unfavorable weather conditions that affected two-thirds of the country from late June to early September impacted corn and sunflower yields
• Yields are now expected to be below average
• Winter crops such as wheat and barley experienced limited impact but saw production below the five-year average due to decreased harvest areas
• The production in Russian-occupied territories was substantially reduced due to the increase in land abandonment and strong yield reduction

 

Urea Firms at NOLA, Egypt in Response to Hurricane, Tenders

Urea strengthened at New Orleans (NOLA) as Hurricane Francine impacted port and barge operations, with prices firming to $311-$322 a short ton (st) from last week’s $308-$318. Egypt urea was also higher in the wake of India’s recent tender, to $355-$360 a metric ton (mt) vs. $347-351, as India formalized awards for 1.17 million mt, Ethiopia tenders for 250,000 mt and China remains out of the export market. Urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) prices were flat at NOLA and in the Corn Belt, though terminal prices in the Northeast were up $10/st from earlier fill program offers.

Ammonium sulfate was steady at NOLA and inland, with prices edging higher in Brazil amid limited supply. NOLA phosphates were down slightly, while potash barges and inland terminal prices were flat from last week.

 

Cuba slashes size of daily bread ration as ingredients run thin

Cuba’s communist-run government on Monday slashed by a quarter the weight of its subsidized ration of daily bread, the latest shortage to strain a decades-old subsidies scheme created by the late Fidel Castro.

The bread, one of a handful of still subsidized basic food products in Cuba, will be reduced from 80 grams to 60 grams (2.1 oz), or approximately the weight of an average cookie or a small bar of soap. Its price, too, was slightly reduced, to just under 1 peso, or 1/3 of a cent.

Still, many Cubans, who earn around 4648 pesos a month, or around $15, can scarcely afford to shop for more expensive bread on the private market, leaving them with few alternatives.

“We have to accept it, what else can we do?” Havana-resident Dolores Fernandez told Reuters while she stood outside a bakery on Monday. “There’s no choice.”

Cuba last week said it had run short of the wheat flour it needs to produce the bread, a predicament the government blames on the U.S. trade embargo, a complex web of restrictions that complicates Cuba’s global financial transactions.

The Caribbean island nation is suffering from extreme shortages of food, fuel and medicine, shortfalls that have primed a record-breaking exodus of its citizens to the nearby United States.

Cuba’s ration book, or “libreta,” as it is known among island residents, was once considered a hallmark of Fidel Castro’s 1959 revolution, providing a range of deeply-discounted products to all Cubans, including bread, fish, meat, milk, and cleaning and toiletry supplies.

Today, the crisis-racked government offers just a fraction of those products, and often, they arrive late, in poor quality or not at all.

Bernardo Matos, of Havana, said he had not detected a change in bread size on Monday, but said he was unhappy with the quality.

“The quality is terrible,” he said shortly after purchasing his ration. “The flour tastes like acid.”

Cuba’s government has said it planned to reinforce inspections at state bakeries to assure quality does not suffer.

Cuba earlier this year sought help from the World Food Programme to guarantee the supply of subsidized powdered milk for children, another key staple of the Cuban ration book that has recently grown scarce.

Beyond the few remaining centrally planned economies like Cuba’s and North Korea’s, rationing is typically only used during war-time, natural disasters or specific contingencies.

 

 

 

 

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