Geopolitics:
The Russia-Ukraine War has become a hot topic of conversation for many global leaders. Recently the UK’s prime minister Keir Starmer and Canada’s Justin Trudeau weighed in on allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons against Russia. They are both in favor of President Biden allowing Ukraine to counter attack using these weapons. Earlier this week Putin said publicly that if NATO allows Ukraine to use such weapons, provided by NATO allies, it will force Putin to declare direct war with NATO and all of it’s allies. A lot of unanswered questions.. Does that mean China will come to the aid of Russia against NATO? Will North Korea get involved? Does India remain neutral if all of this escalates. How will all this activity effect the War in Israel against Hamas? I hope all world leaders are prepared to make the best decisions that lead to fewer lives lost.
Macroeconomics:
The Fed decision to cut rates will happen on Wednesday next week. Traders are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut. It has been over 1 year since Powell has adjusted rates, the last one being a rate hike. I only believe markets will react to the news Wednesday if it is anything other than a 25 bpt cut.
Ag Fundamentals:
Wheat lead the grains higher this morning with news of a potential sale of 430K Mt of wheat from Russia to Egypt. Spring wheat harvest is wrapped up in the northern plains and some are disappointed in quality. We saw plenty of rain in North Dakota and Minnesota over the summer some untimely and caused light test weights, some disease on top of a lower protein content. Corn is trying to put a floor in at $4 over the last week with news of dryness in the eastern corn belt and nitrogen deficiencies in Iowa potentially lowering yields. Beans prices are really dependent on Brazil’s weather over the next month. Rains are expected to come in October, but if for any reason they are pushed back, the US will fill that void next summer. The Commitment of Traders report today showed, again, managed money short covering this week in all row crops. Seems like they were able to cover corn shorts without the market moving very much, meaning the farmer was selling into the “rally” the last week.
Weather:
Iowa is getting some left over rain from Francine this weekend. A front will move across eastern North Dakota into Minnesota as well. Francine is gradually dissipating over the Mid-south but the rain dropped there only helped the river levels increase by 1 foot so far. Memphis river gauge should crest around September 20th and fall back to -7 feet by month end.
The 15 day AI Forecast Map
Artificial Intelligence has calc’d in over 4 inches of rain in western Iowa within the next 15 days. Minnesota is also expected to receive over 3 inches. |
