Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.04-$.05 lower today carving out fresh contract lows all around. Spreads also weakened with Sept/Dec widening out to a record $.24 ½ carry. The market seems of the opinion the recent hot/dry pattern came too late to have much of an impact on this year’s crop. After the close on Friday the Pro Farmer tour estimated this year’s US corn crop at 14.979 bil. bu. with an average yield of 181.1 bpa, 168 mil. bu. below the USDA forecast is Aug-24. Last week money managers were net sellers of nearly 9k contracts of corn extending their short position to 258k, well below the recent record at 354k. Export inspections at 35 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations. YTD inspections at 2.009 bil. are up 39% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 35%. Largest takers last week were Mexico – 14 mil. while Japan and Columbia took 6 mil. each. The European crop monitoring group MARS reduced their EU corn yield forecast to 7.03 mt/HA down from 7.24 mt/HA and in line with the USDA forecast. AgRural estimates Brazilian farmers have planted 4.2% of their expected first corn crop, vs. 7.5% YA
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was moderately higher across the board today with beans up $.05-$.08 making session highs late, meal was $3-$6 higher, also making highs late, while oil was up 25–40. Lower trade overnight in Nov-24 beans held above its contract low at $9.55 before turning around. The rebound stopped before resistance at last week’s high of $9.85. Outside day up for Sept-24 meal with resistance at last week’s high of $317.70. A new 2 week high for Sept-24 oil with next resistance at 42.61. Spot board crush margins rebounded $.07 ½ to $1.85 ½ with bean oil PV falling back to 40%. Temperatures this past weekend surged well above 100 degrees for much of the central and southern plains. Upper 90’s with a few 100+ degree readings are expected for IA thru Wednesday. Mid 90’s expected for the central and ECB. Scattered rains this weekend were limited to Eastern SD, Kansas and central MO. Best prospects for 1+” rainfall this week are across the NC Midwest with lighter to scattered rains expected elsewhere. Temperatures are expected to cool to normal to slightly below normal readings by late week. After the close on Friday PF estimated this year’s US bean crop at a mammoth 4.740 bil. bu. with an average yield of 54.9 bpa, 151 mil. bu. above the record USDA forecast is Aug-24. Last week MM’s were net sellers of just over 8k contracts of beans, 4k contracts of oil while buying nearly 3k contracts of meal. The combined MM short position in the soybean complex at 263,554 contracts is the largest in 5 months. Export inspections at 15 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. YTD inspections at 1.624 bil. are down 15% from YA in line with the USDA forecast. China took nearly 3 mil. bu.
WHEAT
Prices were mostly lower today with Chicago down $.03-$.04 while MGEX was down $.03-$.10. KC recovered to close $.02-$.05 higher. New contract lows for all 3 classes in early trade. Spot Chicago fell below $5 for the first time in 4 years. Last week MM’s were net buyers of just over 20k contracts of Chicago wheat and 1k contracts in MGEX while being a net buyer of 2.5k in KC. IKAR analysts quote Russia’s wheat export price ended last week at $216/mt, down $2/mt from the previous week. SovEcon reports Russia exported 1.16 mmt of grain last week, down from 1.35 mmt the previous week. Wheat sales accounted for 980k mt of those grain sales. US export inspections at 20 mil. bu. were at the high end of expectations. YTD inspections at 189 mil. are up 28% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 15%. MARS reduced their EU soft wheat yield forecast to 5.68 mt/HA down from 5.87 mt/HA the previous month
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