Written Commentary
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are higher due to better than expected corporate earnings reports. However, fears of recession may limit the upside momentum.
The 2:00 central time June consumer credit report is expected to show a $10 billion increase.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is higher after on Monday it declined to its lowest level since mid-January. Gains are likely to be limited on the belief that a weaker U.S. economy will prompt the Federal Reserve to pivot more aggressively to accommodation.
Longer term, the U.S. dollar will probably trend lower.
German industrial production increased 1.4% month-over-month in June, beating the market consensus of a 1.0% advance.
U.K. house prices increased 0.8% in July from June, when up of 0.3% was expected.
The Japanese yen declined after Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said the central bank will refrain from increasing interest rates when the markets are unstable.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
The U.S. Treasury will auction 10-year notes today.
Traders dialed back their expectations of an emergency interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
There is now a 63% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 50 basis points at its September 18 meeting, and there is a 37% probability that the Fed will lower its rate by 25 basis points.
Higher prices are likely for the interest rate market futures longer term.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
