BQC Morning Comments For July 18.24

Macroeconomics: Biden administration tightening policies around chip sales to China pressured tech stocks yesterday. The NASDAQ had its worst day of the year. This pressure the broad markets and is pressuring equities again this morning. EU Central Bank left interest rate at 3.75%. US jobless claims were up 14k to 243k. Economists’ estimate was 229k and last week’s 223k.

Ag Fundamentals: There was no love shown for China at yesterday’s RNC convention which focus on foreign policy. This seems to be weighing on the row crops this morning with little other fresh news. Wheat finding a tad of support. The hot dry forecast for the Northern Plains and western Canada offering support to spring wheat as looks like it can take the top end of this highly rated crop. The winters finding support on improving world wheat tenders. US not getting business but new activity is supportive. Weekly export sales this morning with neutral. Sales meet pace but all traditional business with very little China activity.

Weather: Not much change in outlook. Heat and dry though is building for the Northern Plains over the next 2-3 weeks. They are going from too wet and too cool to maybe too hot and too dry.

• Wheat sales on high end of expectations but only up 1% from prior 4-week average.
  • South Korea was primary destination at 119,000 MT.
• Corn sales were down 19% from the prior week and down 10% from prior 4-week average.
  • NC sales were best weekly to date since last October.
• Bean sales were up 73% from the prior week and 13% from prior 4-week average.
  • Sales included 137,000 MT to China but this may be miss reported as daily reporting last week announced 132,000 MT to China for 24/25 and new crop China is only 10,000 MT.
  • NC bean sales were best reported of the marketing year.
    • Again the 132,000 MT in daily reporting seems to have been included in old rather than new with only 10,000 MT reported to China.