Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Stocks are lower after record high day Tuesday. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher.
SU is near 10.43. Dalian soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were higher. Soybeans were lower. Brazil soybean export prices were firm on increase China demand. Trade still looking for new China buying US soybeans especially new crop. USDA est World 2024/25 soybean exports at 180.2 mmt vs 175.0 ly. Brazil 105.0, US 49.6. USDA est imports at 176.4 with China 109. USDA est World 2024.25 soymeal trade at 74.5 mmt vs 72.4 ly. Argentina 27.3 vs 24,4, Brazil 20.5 vs 21.8 and US 15.8 vs 14.5.
CU is near 3.99. US domestic and export basis is firm. This week should see normal rains with temps normal. Dalian corn futures were higher. Brazil corn export prices were firm. USDA est World 2024/25 corn exports at 191.8 mmt vs 200.9 ly. US is est at 56.5 vs 56.5 ly, Brazil 49.0 vs 50.0, Argentina 36.0 vs 37.0 and Ukraine 24,5 cs 28.9 ly. Some feel final Ukraine crop could be down which could lower their export as much as 8 mmt. USDA est World 2024/25 Imports at 186.5 with Mexico 22.0, EU 18.0, SE Asia 18.4 and Japan 15.5.
WU is near 5.36, Wheat futures are oversold. USDA est US 2024 all wheat crop at 2,008 vs 1.909 expected. USDA est US Spring wheat crop at 578 vs 468 ly USDA numbers were bearish. Egypt bought Russia wheat at discounted prices. Russia new crop sales are below ly due to Turkey absence. USDA est World 2024/25 wheat exports at 213.0. mmt vs 219.9 ly. Russia 48.9, EU 34.5, Canada 25.0, Australis 25.0.
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