Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were down $.01-$.03 hovering just above recent lows. Short term lack of threatening weather continues to keep a lid on rally attempts. No export announcements today. Ethanol production rebounded to 1,064 tbd last week, above expectations and very near the pace needed to reach the USDA corn usage forecast of 5.450 bil. bu. There was 106.6 mil. bu. of corn used in the production process, or 15.2 mil. bu. per day, just below the 15.3 mbd needed to reach the USDA. MY to date corn usage has reached 4.486 bil. bu., or 14.85 mbd, an annualized pace of 5.421 bil. bu. Argentina appears poised to ship corn to China for the first time in 15 years. Census exports in May reached 235 mil. bu. While the lowest for the month in 4 years, it was still 25 mil. above monthly inspections. To reach the USDA forecast exports will need to reach 484 mil. June thru Aug. up 29% over YA. Leaning towards no change to either exports of ethanol use in next Fri. WASDE report. Higher stocks from June 1st est. likely to come from lower feed/residual usage.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mostly higher with beans up $.07-$.11, meal was mixed and with $1 of unchanged, while oil was up another 130-160 higher. So far Aug-24 soybeans have stalled right at last week’s high of $11.62 ½. Aug-24 meal is consolidating near its 100 day MA at $349.50. Aug-24 oil traded to its highest level in nearly 3 months as speculative traders continue to unwind bearish short bets. Oil continues to draw support from a potential trade dispute between China and Indonesia. This could lead to less vegetable oil consumption in China which would lead to less used cooking oil exports to the US creating better opportunities for BO in biofuel production. Adverse global weather is also threatening global vegetable oil supplies. Heavy rains the past 24 hours across the NC Midwest with 1.5-3”+ inches reported for much of northeast MO, SE IA and parts of central WI. Much of the nation’s midsection will continue to see above normal rains over the next 7 days. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonally mild before gradually warming into week 2 of the outlook. A needed dryer pattern is expected to develop over the northern plains and NW third of the corn belt by middle of next week. The USDA announced the sale of 110.1k mt (4 mil. bu.) of soybeans to an unknown buyer, half old crop, half new. Census exports in May at 52 mil. bu. were roughly 4 mil. above monthly inspections. Exports June thru Aug. need to reach 168 mil. bu., up 20% from YA to reach the USDA forecast.
WHEAT
Prices were $.06-$.10 lower across all 3 classes today. Prices were pressured by SovEcon raising their Russian wheat production forecast by 3.4 mmt to 84.1 mmt, now just above the USDA forecast of 83 mmt. Despite challenging spring weather better than expected yields results prompted the production increase. Tunisia is tendering for 50k mt of durum and 100k mt of optional origin milling wheat. Both tenders close tomorrow. Census exports in May were 59 mil. bu. bringing the 2023/24 final export figure to 698 mil. bu. well below the USDA forecast of 720 mil. Recall the USDA June 1st stocks at 702 mil. bu. was 14 mil. above the June WASDE forecast of 688 mil.
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