Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Some are asking if grains have bottomed. Most say no, but I think we are close pricewise but may be too early. SK is up 13 cents and near 11.59. SMK is near 333.6 . BOK is near 45.42. CK is up 3 cents and near 4.24. WK is unch and near 5.75. KWK is up 5 cents and near 5.81. MWK is up 9 cents and near 6.62. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. US GDP, PCE (inflation) and consumer confidence this week. There is talk China may be buying Crude.
SK is near 11.59. Dalian soybean were lower, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were higher. US soybean exports are down 22 pct vs ly and USDA goal of down 12 pct. SH-SK spread out to -11. Overnight US soybean futures were higher on better tech picture. Brazil harvest is near 40 pct vs 33 ly. Brazil farmer is not selling. China has been active buyers of Brazil soybeans. Brazil soybean basis is -50 vs US +80. China may be buying more hand to mouth and buying rapemeal and DDG vs import beans to crush for meal. Argentina offering soymeal near $366 vs US $412.
CK is near 4.24. Dalian corn futures were lower. Mondays US futures buying linked to new concern over Brazil weather and talk China is buying Ukraine corn. Brazil export prices are lower on talk of higher crop due to higher acres. This offset talk of lower crop yield. C/S Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay are dry. Most of US Midwest is warm and dry. Dry rest of Feb could raise talk of drier US summer. US corn exports are up 36 pct vs ly and USDA goal of a 26 pct increase.
Wheat futures were mixed. WK is near 5.75. KWK is near 5.81. MKW is near 6.62. Commercial exporters cancelled 199 Chicago wheat receipts for export. US wheat exports are down 18 pct vs ly and USDA goal of a 4 pct drop. TX crop rating 46 G/E vs 19 ly, KS 57 vs 19. OK 70 vs 39 ly with IL 66 pct G/E vs 82 ly. KY 89 vs 71 ly. Polish farmers protesting higher cost and Ukraine imports.
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