Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is lower. US GDP, PCE (inflation) and consumer confidence this week.
SK is near 11.41. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil were lower. Soybean price fall linked in part to slower US China demand, talk US farmers increased cash sales and talk of normal Brazil weather. Managed funds were near record short 154,000 contracts. Brazil soybean prices continue to drop on slow China demand and quick harvest. Some est US 2023/24 soybean carryout near 325 mil bu vs USDA 315. Higher carryout due to lower exports.
CK is near 4.13. CH is below 4.00 for first time since 2019. Dalian corn futures were higher. Corn price fall linked in part to slower US export demand, cheaper Ukraine prices and talk of normal Brazil weather. Weekly US corn export sales were 820 mt. Most of US Midwest is warm and dry. Dry rest of Feb could raise talk of drier US summer. US approved E-15 sales for Midwest for 2025. Market disappointed it will be delayed until after US election and not US wide. Some est US 2023/24 corn carryout near 2,255 mil bu vs USDA 2,172. Higher carryout due to lower exports.
Wheat futures were mixed on talk new US Russian sanctions will not slow Russia exports. WK is near 5.71 KWK is near 5.66. MKW is near 6.46.. Commercial exporters cancelled 199 Chicago wheat receipts for export. Some est US 2024/25 wheat carryout near 689 mil bu vs USDA 769. Lower carryout due to lower crop and higher exports.
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