Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are quietly mixed. SH is down 1 cent and near 11.93. SMH is near 355.4. BOH is near 45.27. CH is down 2 cents and near 4.38. WH is down 1 cent and near 5.92. KWH is unch and near 6.17. MWH is up 1 cent and near 6.94. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is flat with Middle East tension supportive but lower demand outlook offering resistance.
SH is near 11.93. US exports are down 22 pct vs ly. Some are dropping China imports below 98 mmt. SH-SK widened to -10. Dalian palmoil and soyoil were sharply lower on China demand concerns. Dalian soymeal made new lows. Sharply lower US biodiesel RINS raises concern that supply exceeds demand. Brazil soybean prices are lower as harvest advances, slow export demand and storage worries. US soybean export $470. Brazil $402. Argentina is dry with rains needed. US export meal $418. Argentina April $378. One crop watcher est Brazil soybean crop at 149 mmt vs USDA 157. Argentina 52 mmt vs USDA 50. Brazil government debating increase in National grain storage.
CH prices are lower as Managed funds are adding to corn short on weak technical signals. CH-CK widened to -11. US corn export are up 28 pct vs ly. USDA forecast is up 26 pct. Demand for US and Ukraine exports are in decline due to Asia and Middle East financial problems and war risk. Brazil corn prices are lower on good weather and increasing safrina plantings. US farmer remains reluctant seller as cash prices drop. This offers resistance to a price rally. One crop watcher est Brazil corn crop at 115 mmt vs USDA 127. Argentina 56 mmt vs USDA 55. Brazil government debating increase in National grain storage.
Wheat futures are mixed. WH is near 5.92. KWH 6.94. MWH 6.94. It appears that the market has digested USDA lower than expected estimate of 2024 US winter wheat acres. Russia and EU wheat prices remain a discount to US. US wheat exports are down 16 pct vs last year vs USDA est 4 pct drop. Demand for US exports are in decline due to Asia and Middle East financial problems and war risk. China announced they will accept Argentina wheat imports. Monthly US wheat state crop ratings improved.
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