Written Commentary
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar firmed yesterday after Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish comments, although it is lower today.
Gross domestic product in the U.K. in the third quarter was unchanged from the second quarter compared with a forecast for a 0.1% decline.
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures came under pressure yesterday when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at a panel discussion on monetary policy for the International Monetary Fund, said the central bank is “not confident” that it has done enough to bring down inflation.
Stock index futures are higher today due to an apparent easing of Middle East tensions.
The 9:00 central time November consumer sentiment index is expected to be 63.5.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
The 30-year Treasury bond futures declined yesterday due to the results of the Treasury’s 30-year bond auction with the sale’s bid-to-cover ratio, which is a measure of demand, falling to the lowest level in almost two years, while the number of bidders was the smallest since 2021.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan this morning said the U.S. central bank should consider ways to strengthen its liquidity infrastructure which, while robust, still cannot eliminate risks completely.
Raphael Bostic of the Federal Reserve will speak at 8:00.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 91% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged at its December 13 policy meeting, and there is a 9% probability of a 25 basis point increase.
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