Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to higher. SX is up. CZ is up. WZ is down. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Iran and Afghan Taliban tension is up. Gold, silver, copper, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher.
Soybean futures are higher. SX found support near 12.90. Next resistance is near 13.33. Higher Crude is offering support. There may be some evening up before Fridays USDA report. Dalian soymeal prices are making new highs. Dalian palmoil and soyoil prices were lower. Trade is looking for US soybean yield near 51.3 bpa vs USDA 52.0, Trade is also looking for US 2023/24 soybean carryout near 267 vs USDA 300. US OND soybean export prices are competitive to China vs Brazil. Question is is China covered for OND or will they need to add to US buying. Soybean futures battling tight old crop US supplies vs approaching US harvest.
Corn futures are higher. CZ found support near 4.90. Next resistance is near 5.20. Higher Crude is offering support. There may be some evening up before Fridays USDA report. Dalian corn prices are making new highs. Trade is looking for US corn yield near 175.5 bpa vs USDA 177.5. Trade is looking for US 2023/24 corn carryout near 2,168 vs USDA 2,262. Corn futures battling low demand for US exports and approaching US harvest vs tight US old crop supply and increase Black Sea tension.
Wheat futures are mixed. There may be some evening up before Fridays USDA report. Some feel Egypt bought Russia wheat $14 higher than last weeks prices. There remains uncertainty over freight cost and if Egypt paid for insurance. Trade is looking for US 2023/24 wheat carryout near 598 vs USDA 592. Wheat futures battling low demand for US exports and negative tech signals vs talk of lower World crops and increase Black Sea tension. Weather supports US SRW 2024 plantings but HRW soils are dry.
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