Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is up 9 cents and near 13.85. SMU is near 430.0. BOU is near 64.32. CU is unch and near 4.88. WU is up 5 cents and near 6.45. KWU is up 4 cents and near 7.91. MWU is up 7 cents and near 8.56. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower and near $79. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa and cotton are lower.
Soybean futures are higher. One private group estimated US soybean yield near 50.5. This could tighten US 2023/24 supply outlook. China Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil prices were lower. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 50-400 old crop vs 198 last week, 1,000 to 2,500 vs 544 last week. July India vegoil imports were a record 1.76 mmt. Sunoil up 43 pct vs last month, palmoil up 60 pct but soyoil down 22 pct.
Corn futures are unchanged. CU-CZ spread is out to 12 cents carry. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 150-500 old crop vs 314 last week, 200 to 700 vs 335 last week. Feels like increase carry and lower futures may be trying to find new export demand. One private group estimated US corn yield near 177.0 vs some talk closer to 173.0 and USDA 177.5. This could increase US 2023/24 supply outlook vs what supply bulls were hoping for. Dalian corn futures were sharply higher. Both corn and wheat futures are one headline away from reduced Ukraine exports which could turn futures higher.
Wheat futures are higher. Egypt bought 360 mt Russia wheat near $264 and 60 mt Romania wheat near $263. 1.7 mmt was offered. US Argentina attaché lower the wheat crop to 17 mmt. Argentina remains dry. Canada and EU crop outlook is also on the decline. Canada is dry while N EU is too wet. Both corn and wheat futures are one headline away from reduced Ukraine and Russia exports which could turn futures higher. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 200-500 old crop vs vs 233 last week.
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