Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is up. CU is up. WU is up. KWU is unch. MWU is down. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is unchanged. Gold, silver, coffee, sugar and cotton are higher
Soybean prices are back over 14.00 SU on talk of warmer and drier US west and north Midwest last half July weather. Monday’s GFS weather model added heat to forecast especially in ND, MN, IA, WI and N IL. USDA increased US soybean crop ratings from 51 pct G/E to 55 vs 61 ly. This was higher than expected. Most of the large increase were in the Delta. Some feel forecast suggest future ratings could decline. Weekly US exports were lower than expected. Season to date exports are 1,833 mil bu vs 1,935 ly. USDA goal is 1,980 vs 2,152 ly. USDA est of US 2023/24 exports is 1,850. NOPA crush was lower than expected but on pace for USDA 2,220 goal. Soyoil data was supportive with stocks down suggest demand for renewable fuel is increasing.
Corn futures are trying to regain some of Mondays losses. Mondays was selling the fact that Russia ended the Ukraine export corridor deal. Some feel lack of exports especially to Africa could push EU to lower sanctions against Russia. Overnight Russia missiles attacked Odesa but port appears safe. USDA increased US corn crop ratings from 55 pct G/E to 57. This was in line with expectations. Mondays GFS weather model added heat to forecast especially in ND, MN, IA, WI and N IL. Some feel forecast suggest future ratings could decline. Weekly US exports were lower than expected. Season to date exports are 1,333 mil bu vs 1,981 ly. USDA goal is 1,650 vs 2,472 ly. USDA est of US 2023/24 exports is 2,100. Some est are closer to 1,900. Globally US exports are down to 14 pct of total. Brazil is near 32 pct. There is talk that slow farmer selling has reduced US domestic processing corn cash ownership.
Wheat futures are mixed. Chicago is up while KC is unchanged and Minneapolis spring contract is lower. Mondays was selling the fact that Russia ended the Ukraine export corridor deal. Overnight Russia missiles attacked Odesa but port appears safe. Egypt announced a tended for wheat. This is the longest stretch of time that Egypt has not tendered. Russia domestic wheat prices have rallied as much as $18 dollar a tonne or 50 cents. USDA est US winter wheat harvest at 56 pct vs 69 average. KS 71. Drier weather forecast could help HRW harvest. Rains continue to slow SRW harvest. USDA raised US HRS rating from 47 pct G/E to 51. This was higher than expected. There is forecast of light rains over parts of Canada but forecast is drier. US wheat exports are 65 mil bu vs 77 ly. USDA goal is 725 vs 759 ly. USDA pct of global trade is only 9 percent. Russia is 22 pct. EU is 18. Canada is 12. Australia is 10. Some look for support near 6.40 WU, 8.00 KWU and 8.50 MWU.
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