Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
TGIF. SU is up 8 cents and near 14.07. SMU is near 414.9. BOU is near 63.96. CU is up 8 cents and near 5.01. WU is up 10 cents and near 6.50. KWU is up 9 cents and near 8.15. MWU is up 11 cents and near 8.73. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower and lowest level since Sep, 2022. Mexico peso is record high. Crude is mixed and near $77. Gold and copper are lower. US PPI data suggest Fed could slow new interest rate hikes.
Soybean futures have regained most of the bearish USDA report losses. Lower US Dollar and talk of better US economy offered support. There was talk that China bought US PNW soybeans plus 20-25 Brazil cargoes for May-July, 2024. China saw heavy domestic soymeal buying especially for Oct-Jan. US ECB topsoil moisture has improved. WCB, N plains and Canada prairie soils are dry. On Thursday Managed funds were net buyers of 15,000 soybean with net long near 109,000. Weekly US soybean export commit is down 11 pct vs last year. Some question latest USDA est of US soybean yield and global soybean demand.
Corn futures have regained most of the bearish USDA report losses. Lower US Dollar and talk of slow US and SA farmer selling offers support. US ECB topsoil moisture has improved. WCB, N plains and Canada prairie soils are dry. On Thursday Managed funds were net buyers of 10,000 corn with net short near 16,000. Weekly US corn export commit is down 35 pct vs last year. Some question latest USDA est of US corn yield and global corn demand especially China. Argentina corn harvest is near 58 pct vs 70 average. Average yield near 79 bpa.
Wheat futures are higher led by MLS spring wheat. Lower US Dollar and talk of lower Canada and US SW crops. Talk that India will ban rice exports added to talk that Wheat might be next may be offering support. On Thursday Managed funds were net buyers of 3,000 Chicago wheat with net short near 56,000. Weekly US wheat export commit is down 36 pct vs last year. Some question latest USDA est of World wheat crop estimates especially Canada and Russia. MWU resistance is near 8.77.
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