Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are slightly higher. SN is near 14.51. SU is up 2 cents and near 12.80. SX is near 12.65. SMU is near 385.5. BOU is near 56.65. CN is near 5.97. CU is up 2 cents and near 5.33. CZ is near 5.38. WU is unch and near 6.69. KWU is up 1 cent and near 8.06. MWU is up 1 cent and near 8.19. US stocks are higher. US dollar is higher. Crude is unch and near $69. Gold, silver, copper, cocoa and sugar are lower.
SN is back near 14.50 and SU near 12.80. SX is near 12.65. SMU is down to 385 and BOU is trying to find demand support near 56. Trade is looking for US June 1 soybean stocks at 812 vs 968 ly. Lower number could push SN higher. US 2023 acres are estimated near 87.6 vs USDA March 87.5 and 87.5 ly. Soyoil share of board crush is back to pre EPA level on talk that despite EPA mandate demand for soyoil as feedstock for new crush capacity could increase. Brazil soybean crush is down 4 pct. EU soybean and soymeal imports are down vs last year.
CN is near 5.97 and CU near 5.33. CZ is near 5.38. Forecast of better US rains and estimates of weekly US new crop export sales of only 0-200 mt has helped drop CN 100 cents from recent high. Trade is looking for US June 1 corn stocks at 4,255 vs 4,349 ly. Lower number could push CN higher. US 2023 acres are estimated near 91.8 vs USDA March 92.0 and 88.6 ly. Brazil corn export basis lower on increase farmer selling. A crop tour of OH found corn crop shorter than normal with variable stands. After Friday USDA numbers, trade will begin to speculate on if and how much WOB will drop US corn crop July 12.
Wheat futures are mixed. WU is below 6.69. Estimates of weekly US export sales of only 50-400 mt has helped drop WU 100 cents from recent high. It would now appear that Russia could again resume cheap wheat exports of 4 mmt per month. Trade is looking for US June 1 wheat stocks at 611 vs 698 ly. US 2023 acres are estimated near 49.6 vs USDA March 49.8 and 45.7 ly. Trade will be looking at NASS est of US 2023 HRS acres. Matif wheat futures are near 3 week low on talk that Ukraine wheat crop could be closer to 23-24 mmt vs USDA est of 17.5 and higher Canada acres than last year.
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