Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was sharply lower across the board with soybeans down $.30 – $.40, soybean meal $9 – $10 lower, while soybean oil was down over $.02 ½ per lb. July-23 soybeans closed below last summer’s low of $12.99. On the weekly bar chart spot soybeans at $12.96 ½ are at the midpoint between the Covid low in April-20 and last summer’s high. Nov-23 soybeans plunged to its lowest level since Aug-2021, holding just above the $11.50 level. July-23 meal has traded to its lowest level since last Nov. Next support is $387. Support for July-23 oil rests at 45.75. Export inspections at 9 mil. bu. were in line with expectations however well below the 17 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA export forecast of 2.015 bil. Census crush for the month of April-23 is due out after the close of trade this Thursday.
CORN
Prices were down $.08 – $.10 giving back much, but not all of Friday’s price surge. The 50 day MA at $6.05 ¾ continues to provide overhead resistance for July-23. Both July-23 and Dec-23 were able to hold above Friday’s low of $5.88 ¼ and $5.14 ¼ respectively. While rains will be limited this week across the central and eastern portions of the Midwest, long range forecasts suggest better prospects for rain in the mid-June timeframe. Temperatures are expected to seasonally cool by early next week. Export inspections at 52 mil. bu. were above expectations and above the 46 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA export forecast of 1.775 bil. Shipments to China were 18 mil. bu. AgRural increased their Brazilian corn production forecast by 2.3 mmt to 127.4 mmt. Safras & Mercado increased their Brazilian production est. to 137 mmt, up from 130.3 mmt in March. The USDA forecast from May rests at 130 mmt. Clearly the size of Brazil’s 2nd crop will cut into US global market share well into the new crop MY. Planting progress in ND will be closely scrutinized to estimate how many acres will go into prevent plant.
WHEAT
Prices were sharply lower across the board with Chicago and MGEX both $.20 – $.25 lower while KC was down $.30 – $.35. Spot Chicago has slipped to its lowest level since Dec-2020. Next support for July-23 KC is $7.69 ½. IKAR reports Russian Black Sea wheat export prices have slid to $230/mt, down from $242/mt last week. Total Russian grain exports last week were 1.07 mmt, down from 1.21 mmt the previous week. According to SovEcon, Russian wheat stocks as of May 1st were 12 mmt, double the 5 year average. Private est. from Eastern Europe suggest Russia’s 2022 wheat crop approached 105 mmt, while the USDA is still forecasting production at only 92 mmt. Trade sources also suggest another 60k tons of EU wheat (1/2 Poland, ½ Germany) have been booked for import into the US. Cumulative imports from the EU in recent weeks are approaching 300k tons (11 mil. bu.) US export inspections at 14 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. Rains continue to chip away at drought areas in the Southern plains.
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