Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SN is down 3 cents and near 14.00. SMN is near 420.5. BON is near 51.79. CN is down 2 cents and near 5.91. WN is down 5 cents and near 6.35. KWN is down 5 cents and near 8.50. MWN is down 7 cents and near 8.41. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold, copper, silver, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower.
SK-SN lost ground overnight. Some feel longs may have moved out. US Midwest weather is normal. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 200-500 mt. Brazil prices are lower than US. USDA should raise Brazil crop tomorrow. Argentina Rosario Exchange dropped the Argentina crop to 21.5 mmt. Some will look to see if USDA increase US biodiesel soyoil demand. Dalian soybeans, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil prices were all lower. SN back near 14.00 and SX below 12.50 on lack of bullish news.
CK-CN also lost ground overnight. Appears most commercial shorts got cash coverage. US ethanol margins are positive and US farmer is bullish and now selling here. Weekly US corn export sales are est near -100-800 mt. No new news on Ukraine corridor talks. Trade will see what USDA est US, Ukraine, Brazil and Argentina 2024 corn production at. Trade already looking for higher World end stocks. Some feel CN is following closely 2012 and 2013 price trend. Late June was key for price action. Dry 2012 weather and in July futures rallied 75 cents per week. And tested 7.00. Normal 2013 weather and CN loss 10 cents per week in July and dropped below 4.50. Since mid April China has cancelled 832 mt US corn.
Weekly US wheat sales are est near 75-300 mt. Russia dropped export price to $245 to do Algeria but looks like Balkan is cheaper. No news on Ukraine corridor talks. Trade will be watching USDA est of EU, US, Russia, Argentina, Canada, Australia 2024 crops. USDA has to lower EU wheat exports and raise end stocks. Too wet in ND, too dry in Canada, Australia, Argentina and SW US HRW. EU and Black Sea are normal. US futures more focused on lower export demand than lower World 2024 supply.
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