Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. SN is down 3 cents and near 14.30. SMN is near 424.3. BON is near 53.74. CN is down 4 cents and near 5.92. WN is down 5 cents and near 6.49. KWN is down 1 cent and near 8.42. MWN is up 2 cents and near 8.45. US stocks are lower. US Dollar are higher Crude is lower on lower China demand. Copper, silver, cocoa, and cotton are lower.
Soybeans futures are lower. Weekly US soybean exports were 14 mil bu. Season to date exports are 1,758 mil bu vs 1,754 ly. USDA estimated US soybean plantings 35 pct vs 21 average. IL 66, AR 58, IA 49, NE 36, TN 38, OH 16, MN 13 and WI 11. Trade est US 2023/24 soybean carryout at 293. Brazil soybean crop is est at 155 mmt vs 154 previous and Argentina 24 vs 27. US 2023 soybean crop is est near 4,494 vs 4,275 ly. China April soybean imports were 7.29 mmt or down 10 pct ly. Season to date exports are 52 mmt or up 2.7 pct. Domestic China soybean crush margins ae up on delay in unloading imports. Palmoil prices ae higher. EU rapeseed sharply lower on to much supply.
Corn futures are lower. Weekly US corn exports were 38 mil bu. Season to date exports are 978 mil bu vs 1,499 ly. USDA estimated US corn plantings 49 pct vs 42 average. IL 73, IA 70, NE 56, IN 36, MN 38, SD 26, WI 14, OH 11, WI 14 and ND 1. Crop watchers are worried about late plantings is NW corn belt, delayed emergence in northern states and dry soils in WCB. Trade est US 2023/24 corn carryout at 2,094. Brazil corn crop is est at 126 mmt vs 125 previous and Argentina 35 vs 37. US 2023 corn crop is est near 15,120 vs 13,730 ly. Ukraine corridor export inspections have been halted.
KWN and MWN are gaining on WN. KWN-WN spread is up to +197. HRW weather outlook is dry, HRS wet. Argentina is dry. EU weather is favorable but Ukraine is dry. N Africa is dry. Weekly US exports were 7 mil bu. Season to date exports are 678 mil bu vs 699 ly. USDA rated US winter wheat crop at 29 pct G/E vs 28 lw. KS 11, OK 7, TX 20, OH 67, MO 66, WA 66. Spring wheat plantings were est at 24 pct, ND 10.
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