Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
SN ended near 14.36. SX 12.80. With 20 percent of the Argentina crop harvested, early yields are only 17 bpa which suggest a crop of only 18 mmt. Informa today estimated the crop at 24 mmt. USDA is 27 mmt vs 43.9 ly. Informa estimated the Brazil crop at 155 mmt vs USDA 154 and 130 ly. Busy week ahead with Russia Victory day May 9 and USDA May 12. Some could see USDA drop US 2022/23 soybean exports 55 mil bu to 1,960. This could increase carryout to 270. Some look for US 2023 acres near 87.5, yield of 52.7, crop of 4,570. Some est US 2023/24 crush at record 2,320 but exports at only 1,975. This suggest a carryout of 440. Brazil nearby soybean basis is near -120. September is +70. Will the Chinese increase old crop China buying and increase new crop US buying..
CORN
CN ended near 5.96. CZ 5.34. 36 percent of the Argentina crop harvested, early yields are only 71 bpa which suggest a crop of only 30 mmt. Informa today estimated the crop at 36 mmt. USDA is 37 mmt vs 49.5 ly. Informa estimated the Brazil crop at 126 mmt vs USDA 125 and 116 ly. Busy week ahead with Russia Victory day May 9 and USDA May 12. Some could see USDA drop US 2022/23 corn exports 100 mil bu to 1,750. This could increase carryout to 1,415. This week China for the first time ever bought a corn cargo from South Africa. Some look for US 2023 acres near 92.0, yield of 180.6, crop of 15,180. Some est US 2023/24 feed and residual at 5,600 but exports at only 1,900. This suggest a carryout of 2,370. There remains concern about Russia not extending Ukraine export corridor deal that expires March 18. American weather model is drier across W plains and NW Midwest and heavy rains in the Delta especially on the west side of Mississippi river where 6.00-8.00 inches of rain could fall.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher. KC was up 35 cents and near 8.37 on rumors of a KS crop near 220 mil bu. There were also rumors of 2.0-2.5 lower harvested acres. US south plains weather could be key to crop size and prices. Unwanted north plains could also slow plantings and reduce planted acres and increase prevent planted acres. WN ended near 6.60. MWN ended near 8.36. A private crop survey estimated US HRW crop at 588 mil bu vs 531 last year and SRW crop near 387 vs 337 last year. Earlier a milling group estimated the SRW crop closer to 400. Same group estimated US 2023 winter wheat crop near 1,199 vs 1,104 ly and total US 2023 wheat crop near 1,756 versus 1,650 ly. They raised Canada crop to 36.0, Ukraine to 17.8, EU to 139, Argentina to 21.0 and Australia to 29.0.
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