Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. USDA report day. SK is up 10 cents and near 14.98. SMK is near 456.2. BOK is near 54.65. CK is up 1 cent and near 6.55. WK is up 2 cents and near 6.80. KWK is up 2 cents and near 8.78. MWK is up 7 cents and near 8.82. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is up slightly. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher.
Most look for USDA to drop US 2022/23 corn carryout due to higher demand. US domestic corn basis continues to trend higher. US corn plantings is near 3 pct vs 2 average and should gain this week with open weather. US corn shipments are near 20.2 mmt vs 32.0 Ly. USDA goal is 47.0 vs 62.7 ly. USDA is expected to estimate Brazil corn crop near 126 mmt vs 125 previous and Argentina at 36.5 vs 40.0 previous. Strong US cash basis should support corn futures. Some still feel CK could test 6.90 and CZ 6.00-6.20.
Most look for USDA to drop US 2022/23 soybean carryout. Some feel new US soybean export sales could slow in favor of Brazil. US soybean shipments are near 46.1 mmt vs 45.0 Ly. USDA goal is 54.8 vs 58.7 ly. USDA is expected to estimate Brazil soybean crop near 153 mmt with some estimates closer to 155.0 and Argentina at 28.5 vs 33.0 previous. Overnight and before USDA report SK is back to near 15.00 resistance. SX is near 13.17.
Most look for USDA to increase slightly US 2022/23 wheat carryout due to lower export demand. USDA rated US winter wheat crop 27 pct G/E vs 28 last week and 32 ly. KS is 13, OK 20, NE 23, CO 25, IL 64, AR 69, IN 68, WA 39. US spring wheat plantings are 1 pct vs 4 average. US wheat shipments are near 17.2 mmt vs 17.6 Ly. USDA goal is 21.1 vs 21.7 ly. Some feel USDA est of EU wheat stocks near 11.0 mmt is too low and stocks could be closer to 18.0. Some also feel USDA est of Russia wheat crop near 92.0 mmt is too low and crop could be closer to 100.0.
KWK-WK spread made new highs near +200. US HRW weather remains dry vs normal SRW. US Dollar is lower and Crude is higher which helps support commodities/wheat futures.
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