Written Commentary
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures firmed when the employment data were released.
March nonfarm payrolls were up 236,000 when a gain of 240,000 was expected.
Private payrolls increased 189,000 when up 223,000 was anticipated.
Manufacturing payrolls declined 1,000 when a gain of 10,000 was predicted.
Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% as estimated.
The unemployment rate was 3.5% when 3.6% was expected.
The 2:00 central time February consumer credit report is estimated to show an increase of $20 billion.
Stock index futures have performed very well considering recent strains in the international financial system and recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar firmed when the U.S. employment data were released.
Average cash earnings in Japan increased 1.1% year-to-year in February 2023, accelerating from the 0.8% gain in the previous month and beating the market consensus of 0.9%.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures declined when the employment data were released.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the food price index dropped for a twelfth month to 126.9 points in March 2023, hitting the lowest level since July 2021, and is down 20.5% from the record hit in March 2022.
Underlying support for futures remains due to the belief that central banks will not be able to keep raising interest rates much longer.
The technicals and fundamentals for futures have become more supportive since early March.
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