Written Commentary
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index was higher after a surprise cut in oil production of more than 1 million barrels per day from OPEC+, which raised inflationary concerns and probabilities of higher interest rates.
The March euro zone manufacturing PMI was 47.3 when 47.1 was predicted.
The Swiss franc declined on expectations of a smaller 25 basis point rate hike from the Swiss National Bank in June after softer than expected inflation data in March. The latest data showed the annual inflation rate slowed to 2.9%, which is the lowest in three months, down from 3.4% in February and below market predictions of 3.2%. In addition, the core rate eased to 2.2%
The final au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index increased to 49.2 in March from February’s 47.7.
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
S&P 500 futures are mixed.
The 8:45 central time March Chicago PMI manufacturing final is expected to be 49.3.
The 9:00 March Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index is anticipated to be 47.5.
The 9:00 February construction spending report is estimated to be unchanged from the previous month.
Considering recent strains in the international financial system, stock index futures have held up very well.
The technicals remain supportive to stock index futures.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures are lower due to the surprise cut in oil production from OPEC+, which some analysts belief is inflationary. However, other analysts are taking an opposite view, which I think is the correct one, believing higher crude oil prices will slow the global economy. Of course, a slower global economy has disinflationary ramifications.
Underlying support remains due to the belief that central banks will not be able to keep raising interest rates much longer.
The technicals and fundamentals for futures have become more supportive since early March.
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