Global Ag News for Mar 31.23

TOP HEADLINES

More Than 20% of Turkey’s Food Output Lost From Earthquakes: FAO

The earthquakes that struck Turkey in February spurred severe damage to crops, livestock and fisheries, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization said Friday in a report.

• Initial assessment points to $1.3b in damage and $5.1b in losses to the agriculture sector
• Access to inputs has become “increasingly challenging” and growers are facing labor shortages
• “This precarious situation raises further concerns as the summer harvest season draws near”
• NOTE: Turkey’s largest crop sectors by volume include wheat, sugar-beet, tomatoes and corn, FAO data show
• Estimate of damages and losses in Syria is ongoing

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 6 in SRW, down 5 in HRW, down 7 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans down 1; Soymeal down $0.42; Soyoil up 0.22.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 2 1/2 in SRW, up 17 3/4 in HRW, up 14 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/2; Soybeans up 41 3/4; Soymeal up $1.06; Soyoil up 0.98.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 19 1/4 in SRW, up 53 3/4 in HRW, up 5 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 19; Soybeans down 5 1/2; Soymeal down $11.40; Soyoil down 5.45.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 13.4% in SRW, down 2.5% in HRW, down 7.1% in HRS; Corn is down 4.6%; Soybeans down 3.2%; Soymeal down 4.8%; Soyoil down 15.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 23) Soybeans up 26 yuan; Soymeal down 17; Soyoil up 110; Palm oil up 78; Corn down 16 — Malaysian Palm is down 18. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 18 ringgit (-0.48%) at 3770.

There were changes in registrations (-44 Corn). Registration total: 2,537 SRW Wheat contracts; 23 Oats; 29 Corn; 166 Soybeans; 613 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 37 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 30 were: SRW Wheat up 1,781 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,004, Corn down 1,983, Soybeans down 137, Soymeal up 673, Soyoil up 6,049.

Midwest Forecast: Another strong storm will move through the Midwest on Thursday into Saturday with widespread precipitation, severe storms, strong winds, and a band of snow across the north as we turn the calendar to April. A similar storm system is forecast for next week. The wetter conditions across a lot of the region are causing a slow start to fieldwork.

Northern Plains Forecast: Some occasional snow continues in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies Thursday, but a heavier band will form in South Dakota on Friday that could add to the snowpack. Cold temperatures will limit melting for yet another week and the risk of significant flooding is increasing when temperatures do turn higher, perhaps abruptly.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: A larger storm builds across the Central and Southern Plains Thursday into Friday. Northern and eastern areas again look to have the best chance for precipitation while strong winds develop elsewhere, sapping soil moisture. The outlook for the southwestern Plains remains grim as this area gets missed by yet another large storm. A similar large storm is expected next week that should bring much of the same conditions as the storm this week.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Wet season showers have become isolated through central Brazil and are forecast to remain that way through April, leaving some concern for enough available soil moisture for developing safrinha corn. Systems moving through Argentina will bring showers into southern Brazil, however, which may enhance showers there at times.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Argentina continues to be active with several more fronts moving through with more showers going into April. Heavy rain last week and this week is too late to turn around damaged corn and soybeans. Temperatures look to waffle a bit more as fall harvest time nears.

The player sheet for 3/30 had funds: net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,500 corn, sellers of 2,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday confirmed private sales of 178,000 tonnes of U.S. corn to China for delivery in the 2022/23 marketing year that began Sept. 1, 2022.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has purchased 395,000 tonnes of milling wheat out of a tender for 695,000 tonnes held on Tuesday, traders said on Thursday. Traders had initially reported that TMO had purchased the full amount it had tendered for but tonnages in TMO’s tenders are provisional and can be reduced or cancelled completely in the following days.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase up to 70,000 tonnes of animal feed corn to be sourced from Argentina or Brazil.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 121,800 tonnes of rice.

TODAYUS Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending March 23, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• China bought 709k tons of the 1.1m tons of corn sold in the week
• China also led in soybean purchases, and Mexico was the top buyer of wheat

EU Pegs 2023-24 Grain Harvest Up 8.4% Y/y, Oilseeds at Record

Total grain production in the EU is seen rising 8.4% y/y in the 2023-24 season to 287.9m tons, assuming normal weather, the European Commission said Thursday in a report.

• Exports may increase by a similar level
• Soft-wheat crop seen at 130.9m, barley at 54.2m tons and corn at 65m tons
• Oilseed production seen at a record 33.6m tons, up 7% y/y
• Rapeseed plantings rose due to high prices
• Sugar-beet plantings in 2023 could fall 3% below the 5-year average to 1.455m hectares, following the ruling against neonicotinoid use

Brazil’s Parana Soy Production Estimate Raised by 6% by Deral

Soybean production in Parana, Brazil’s second largest growing state, is seen at 22.2 million tons, up from 20.9m tons last month, the state’s rural economy department Deral says in report.

• Output seen jumping from 12.2m tons last season
• Harvest is 77% complete vs 17% a month earlier
• Winter-corn crop seen at 14.7m tons, down from 15.4m tons a month earlier
  • Output may rise 10.5% y/y
  • Seeding is 93% complete vs 26% last month
  • 98% of corn crops are in good shape

Argentina’s Rosario ports operating normally despite strike – chamber

Argentina’s Rosario agro-port hub terminals were operating normally on Thursday in the midst of a strike by the Urgara grain receivers union aimed at storage centers, the country’s Chamber of Port and Maritime Activities (CAPyM) said.

“The ports are not affected,” Guillermo Wade, manager of CAPyM, told Reuters, adding that, at most, “those who have stocks will be receiving a little less merchandise or less than the estimated, but they are very specific cases.”

Grain receivers are technicians who analyze the merchandise stored in collection centers distributed throughout the country, as well as when it’s loaded onto ships.

Argentina is the world’s leading exporter of soybean oil and meal, and the third largest in corn. Nearly 80% of grain shipments and almost all of the country’s exports of soybean derivatives come out of the Rosario agro-port cordon.

In the current agricultural season, Argentina has been affected by a historic drought that has caused serious losses and is on a path to leave the country’s soybean production at its lowest level in decades.

Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates March 30: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2022-23 soybean production held at 25m tons
• Corn production held at 36m tons

Argentina Unleashes ‘Dollar Malbec’ to Help Exports Amid Drought

• Argentina to provide temporary FX relief to farmers, producers
• Measure a bid to boost exports as severe drought hits economy

Argentina is rolling out a temporary, subsidized exchange rate for wine and other agriculture products in an elaborate bid to boost exports and foreign reserves as the worst drought in a century exacerbates a looming recession.

Economy Minister Sergio Massa confirmed Thursday he’s going forward with the exchange rate measure, dubbed “Dollar Agro” or “Dollar Malbec” by the Argentine press because it benefits the producers of the country’s most-well known wine grape.

The policy will give producers a more beneficial exchange rate for 90 days when they sell their products abroad, including rice and peanuts, instead of the official peso value that the government has kept artificially high in a bid to avoid devaluation.

Starting in April, the government will also allow a 30-day exchange rate for soy exports, the third version of the measure for that product, according to an Economy Ministry statement Thursday, which didn’t specify the new exchange rate level for any of the products.

Argentina’s official rate closed Thursday at about 209 pesos per dollar and previous versions of the soy exchange rate were well above the official. In black market exchanges, the local currency trades at half its value, or about 400 pesos per dollar.

“The drought hit us very hard,” Massa told reporters in Washington Thursday after meeting with officials at the International Monetary Fund. The temporary exchange rates aim to “strengthen the central bank’s reserves in the second quarter and continue the stabilization path that Argentina needs to do.”

To be sure, wine exports alone — just over $1 billion annually — won’t turn around Argentina’s economic outlook. However, with the measure the government also seeks to get every dollar it can from exports as central bank reserves have fallen from $44.6 billion at the start of the year to $36.6 billion now, near the lowest level since 2016.

A farmer walks trough soy plants that struggle to survive amid a severe drought in San Jerónimo Sud, Argentina, earlier in March.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange has slashed its annual soy production forecast to 25 million metric tons, far below the five-year average of 45 million tons and the worst figure in decades. The Argentine economy greatly depends on farming exports to generate dollars.

Special rates for soy last year forced Argentina to request waivers for the government’s $44 billion agreement with the IMF because it broke the lender’s rules on “multiple currency practices.” The IMF’s executive board is expected to approve a new $5.3 billion disbursement to Argentina in coming days as part of the program’s total following the fourth staff-level review.

Those past soy rates boosted exports in the short-term but also raised concerns about pumping more pesos into the economy as inflation is already running above 100%.

Malaysia’s March 1-31 Palm Oil Exports 1,402,142 Tons: AmSpec

Shipments jump 32% m/m from 1,062,057 tons exported during Feb. 1-28, according to AmSpec Agri in a statement.

French Soft-Wheat Ratings Hold Steady, Durum Falls: AgriMer

The amount of France’s soft-wheat crop in good or very good condition held at 94% as of March 27, the same as the prior week, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.

Viterra Seeks to Sell Part of Stake in Key Russia Grain Terminal

• Company has made offer to Demetra, which owns the rest
• Move comes as western grain traders pull back from Russia

Glencore-backed Viterra has offered to sell half its 50% stake in a major Black Sea grain terminal to Russia’s Demetra Trading, which owns the rest, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Taman terminal is one of the largest in Russia, with grain storage capacity of 200,000 tons, according to the company’s website. No sale has yet been agreed, but there are conversations happening about price, the people said.

The discussions come as Viterra, along with Cargill Inc., readies to halt purchases of Russian grain for export, as trade grows more complicated during the war and international merchants face pressure from Moscow and the local industry to leave, Bloomberg reported this week.

The companies are the two biggest western shippers from Russia, the world’s top wheat exporter, and both have export assets there. What happens to those facilities could give an indication of which local firms stand to gain.

Viterra did not immediately respond to a request for comment. State-controlled VTB Group is one of the shareholders of Demetra.

The country’s agriculture ministry said on Wednesday that Russia is ready to work with all foreign companies that contribute to its export potential, while adding that any gaps in the market are being filled by Russian companies.

Fertilizer Prices Fall 26% in Break for Price Squeezed Farmers

• Tampa ammonia falls to likely floor, BI analyst Maxwell says
• Price drop hits as US corn farmers prepare for growing season

Farmers who balked at high fertilizer costs ahead of the current growing season are poised for relief as the price for a key nitrogen fertilizer drops 26% on robust supply and dwindling demand.

The spot Tampa anhydrous ammonia contract for April fell to $435 a metric ton cost and freight, down from $590 in March, according to Bloomberg’s Green Markets.

Prices have probably hit a floor, BI analyst Alexis Maxwell said, but they aren’t likely to rise significantly again soon. That means it’s a good time to scoop up product, she said. Farmers have held back buying nutrients as the price of natural gas, the main input for most nitrogen fertilizer, has been declining, in hopes that retail costs will fall.

Read More: Fertilizer Outlook at Risk as Cool Spring Threatens Plantings

Tanking prices could bring relief to farmers, who have faced rising costs for everything that goes into growing food, from chemicals and fuel to equipment and labor. Wholesale prices of Tampa ammonia, the world’s benchmark, have plummeted 73% from a high last April, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine roiled multiple supply chains affecting global fertilizer trade and production.

The drop indicates retail prices will ease, even if there’s a lag. That brightens the outlook for grain harvests needed to replenish the world’s war-strained food reserves.

“We believe the worst has passed” for farmers, Maxwell said. “If I were a retailer looking to buy from a producer, I’d secure my supply for the farmers.”

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 651k tons in the week ending March 25 from 578k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 34% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 9% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $17.53 per short ton, an increase of $0.12 from the previous week

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