Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
New month same news. Grains are mixed. SF is up 13 cents and near 14.32. SMZ is near 429.8. BOZ is near 73.76. CZ is down 1 cent and near 6.90. WZ is down 11 cents and near 8.71. KWZ is down 9 cents and near 9.69. MWZ is down 9 cents and near 9.71.
The Ukraine export situation just got more confusing. First, Putin said the corridor was closed. Then he said it was just suspended. That the deal was still on. Russia continues to pound Ukraine infrastructure. There 218 grain vessels in Ukraine. 95 have left but are waiting inspections. 101 are waiting for inspections to enter Ukraine for loading. 22 are loaded and waiting to leave Ukraine. This could be why corn and wheat are lower. US plains are dry. Brazil dry but rains next week, Argentina is dry. Next weeks rains could miss key crop areas.
USDA estimated that the corn crop was 76 pct harvested. Harvest is late in CO, IN, IA, MI, OH and TN. Go Vols. Farmer not selling. 60 pct old crop sold. Less that 5 pct 2023. US corn inspections are down 23 pct from last year. Brazil and Argentina corn export prices are lower than US. Brazil truckers are blocking roads protesting Brazil new President. Ukraine grain harvest is slowed due to high storage cost. Some also se 2023 acres down due to high cost of of planting, lack of fertilizer and seed and low cash prices to farmers.
Soybean prices are higher. Weekly US soybean exports were good. Still, China bought only 25 soybean cargoes last week for Nov-Dec-Feb and May. Mostly Brazil. There was also talk that 2-3 US soybean cargoes for China was switched to Brazil due to Miss river problems. US crushers still looking for beans. There are no Brazil and Argentina soybean Dec/Jan export prices. SA is soymeal export prices are still cheaper than US. World vegoil prices are sharply higher. USDA estimated that the soybean crop was 88 pct harvested. Harvest is late in KY, MI, MO, NC and TN.
Wheat is giving back some of Mondays gains. Russia export prices are still below US. There are mixed report about the current status of Ukraine export corridor. Some feel Ukraine may be able to ship the 1.9 mmt of grain monthly to reach USDA goals. Still looks dry in US plains and Argentina. Australia weather has stabilized. EU and Black Sea weather is ok. US Fed meeting tomorrow especially forward thinking, Nov 8 election and Nov USDA report will add to commodity, equity and energy price volatility. US HRW farmer still talking of increase 2023 acres and yield if it rains. 87 pct of US winter wheat crop is planted. First USDA 2023 crop rating was only 28 pct G/E and lowest for this week ever. KS is 24, TX 4, OK 11, AR 75, OR 76.
US Dollar is lower. US stocks are higher. Crude, gold, silver, copper, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher.
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