Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
TGIF. There were a lot of Mondays this week. Grains are mixed. SX is up 4 cents and near 14.00. SMZ is near 411.2. BOZ is near 66.62. CZ is down 2 cents and near 6.95. WZ is now down 7 cents and near 8.84. KWZ is down 3 cents and near 9.79. MWZ is down 3 cents and near 9.76.
Dec corn is near 7.00. Weekly US export sales are estimated near 300-900 mt vs 227 last week. Bulls feel lower US supply and uncertain Ukraine export pace offers support. Demand bears feel CZ does not need to trade over 7.00 given fact USDA may be too high in their export estimate and South America and Ukraine corn export prices are below US. Talk of record 2023 Brazil crop offers resistance.
Wheat futures are marginally lower. Managed funds covered shorts on talk Russia may not extend Ukraine export deal. Some feel UN is brokering a deal that would extend the deal for exports to poor countries. Once vessels leave they could end up anywhere the price is the best. Dry Argentina and US plains offers support. Hope that end of La Nina could bring rain to dry areas offers resistance. Russia and EU wheat export prices are still well below US. Weekly US export sales are estimated near 200-500 mt vs 229 last week.
Soybeans are supported by fact this week 1,068 mt of US soybeans were sold to China and unknown. China crush margins are lower. Sunday China President speech could be key if XI comments on Taiwan, China slower economy, covid policy and falling real estate sector. 1,500 point rebound in Dow and higher energy markets helped soybean futures rally over 14.00. Jan soybean board crush margins remain high with river logistics look to remain poor and US railroads are threatening to strike. Weekly US export sales are estimated near 600-1,400 mt vs 777 last week.
US Dollar is higher. US stocks are now lower. Crude is lower. Gold, silver, coffee and cotton are lower. Copper, cocoa and sugar are higher. Commodities are watching US Fed action.
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