Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SX is up 23 cents and near 13.90. SMZ is near 406.5. BOZ is near 66.77. CZ is up 5 cents and near 6.89. WZ is up 36 cents and near 9.16. KWZ is up 23 cents and near 9.99. MWZ is up 9 cents and near 9.88.
China is back from Holiday with new US Congress this week. Soybeans are higher on hopes China will soon return to buy US soybeans. China domestic soybean crush margins are record high. US soybean harvest is estimated near 44-48 pct done. Talk of better US river logistics is helping soybean futures
Corn futures are caught between lower supply risk but even lower US export demand. US corn harvest is estimated near 32-35 pct. Ukraine war is escalating which adds price risk uncertainty in what will Russia next military move be. Ukraine export a record 2 mmt of corn in September with October estimated near 2.5. Argentina continues to be dry.
Wheat futures last week dropped from key resistance in part due to talk of lower global demand. Bombing of Crimea bridge adds to talk that now Russia may not extend Ukraine corridor export deal. US south plains remains dry. USDA October supply and demand report could be friendly after USDA dropped US 2022 crop.
US Dollar is higher. US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. Gold. Silver, coffee and sugar are lower. Copper, coffee, cocoa and cotton are higher. US Fed Governors said again they will raise US rates until inflation is down 2 pct continues to rally US Dollar. S&P is lower.
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