Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is unch and near 14.63. SQ is near 16.11. SMU is near 437.0. SMQ is near 498.0. BOU is near 66.05. CU is down 6 cents and near 6.04. WU is down 6 cents and near 7.69. KWU is down 8 cents and near 8.40. MWU is down 3 cents and near 8.83.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower on recession concerns. Wednesday US CPI is expected near 7.5 vs June 9.1. China war drills around Taiwan negative but China is still buying beans. Ukraine war still slowing Ukraine grain exports.
There is new concern about crops especially soybeans in parts of W/S IA, NE, N MO and KS. Parts of WC IL could also see less than normal rains. SU in a broad 14.00-15.00 range into US harvest. USDA report August 12. USDA could raise US carryout due to lower exports. Weekly US soybean crop ratings could drop 1-2 pct. New US energy bill could help green fuel demand which is helping soyoil and offering support to soybean futures.
Weekend rains across N US Midwest could offer resistance to corn futures. Talk of lower EU crop and Brazil export supplies could keep CU in a 5.80-6.20 range into US harvest. This week, parts of W EU could see needed rains. Dry weather in KS and NE could lower yields their 10 pct. That is 250 mil bu and drops US corn yield 3 bpa. Some have dropped US 2021/22 corn demand 90 mil bu due to lower exports and ethanol use. Same group are increasing 2022/23 US corn feed use 200 mil bu from USDA but lowering ethanol use 125. All of this keep US 2022/23 corn carryout near 1,500 mil bu.
Private estimates of US 2022 wheat crop suggest lower HRW, but higher HRS, SRW and white wheat crops than last year. Lack of US export demand negative. Lower Russia exports, lower Argentina supply, and tight EU exports supplies offers support and could keep WU in a 7.50-8.00 range. Hot and dry weather (Suhkovei) could impact crops in parts of S Russia.
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