Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SU is up 5 cents and near 14.85. SN is near 16.74. SX is near14.68. SMU is near 411.0. SMN is near 461.0. BOU is near 67.69. BON is near 71.98. CU is unch and near 6.69. CN is near 7.63. CZ is near 6.61. WU is up 10 cents and near 9.46. KWU is up 11 cents and near 10.01. MWU is up 8 cents and near 10.49.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, copper, cocoa, sugar are lower. Coffee and cotton are higher. Inflation and recession concerns adds to commodity trade volatility. NATO deciding to add Finland and Sweden. G7 and G20 looking at ways to lower Russia oil revenue.
Over the next few days US north plains could see rain but Midwest will be mostly dry. Next week temps turn warmer. Parts of France, Germany and Poland could see rains with rest of EU dry. Canada is cool and dry. India monsoon improving.
US domestic cash soybean basis levels remain firm. Higher soymeal basis is helping SMN and board crush margins. Dalian soybean, soymeal. palmoil and soyoil futures were higher. Trade still hoping for increase China buying US soybeans. US trade range for June 1 stocks wide at 360 mil bu vs USDA carryout est of 280. Trade range for US 2022 soybean acres is 3.6 mil acres. Average guess 90.4 vs USDA March est of 90.9 and 87.2 ly.
US domestic cash corn basis levels remain firm. CN-CU spread near +93. Dalian corn futures were higher. Trade still hoping for increase World buyers buying US corn. US trade range for June 1 stocks at 379 mil bu. Trade range for US 2022 corn acres at 2.6 mil acres. Average guess 89.8 vs USDA March est of 89.5 and 93.3 ly.
World wheat demand increasing with Russia defaults raising questions of their ability to offer wheat for export. Improving weather offering resistance to MWU vs WU and KWU. Average guess for US 2022 wheat acres is 47.0 vs USDA March est of 47.3 and 46.7 ly. US SRW export prices competitive for Aug-Sep. Not Oct due to carry. Last year, US and EU futures bottomed the first week in July.
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