ADMIS News
COCOA
Cocoa continues to hold its ground within its post-holiday consolidation zone as it has been unable to climb above its 3 major moving averages. The market continues to receive bullish supply/demand news. Expectations that recent rainfall over West African growing areas may benefit their late mid-crop production weighed on cocoa prices. The latest weekly reading for Ivory Coast port arrivals came in below the comparable period last year, and that has kept their full season total behind last season’s pace.
COFFEE
Coffee has longer-term bullish supply factors to provide support, but continues to have trouble extending its late May/early June rally. A more than 1.5% decline in the Brazilian currency to a 2 1/2 week low was a notable source of pressure on coffee prices as that may encourage Brazil’s farmers to market their remaining near-term supplies. With their current 2022/23 Arabica harvest behind schedule due in part to a lack of workers, the prospect of an near-term increase in Brazil’s coffee exports could weigh on coffee prices going forward.
COTTON
The 1-5-day forecast calls for just very light coverage of 1/4 inch or less for the Texas Panhandle with better coverage across Oklahoma, Arkansas the Delta and the southeast. West Texas shows light to no rain at all. However, the region has received some rain in the last week, and the crop improved somewhat there over the past week. The 6-10 and 8-14-day forecasts call for below normal precipitation with well above average temperatures, which could limit the ability for soils to recharge with moisture.
SUGAR
The sugar market has fallen back on the defensive as bearish demand developments and weakness in key outside markets has helped to pressure. October sugar came under immediate pressure and fell to a new 3 1/2 week low yesterday. There are indications that Brazil’s Senate will receive a bill later today that would cap taxes on fuel at 17%. Since it currently has a tax higher than 17%, that would essentially become a price cut for Brazilian gasoline.
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