Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is down 11 cents and near 16.10. SX is near 14.61. SMN is near 409.3. BON is near 80.77. CN is down 11 cents and near 7.73. CZ is near 7.09. WN is up 16 cents and near 11.25. KWN is up 24 cents and near 11.94. MWN is up 24 cents and near 12.33.
US stocks are lower and due to fear of higher inflation. Crude is lower on talk of lower Saudi Arabia prices and China lockdowns. US Dollar is higher on talk of higher US interest rates.
Soybeans futures are lower. Some look for lower prices like last year at this time. Steep drop in World equity markets and higher US Dollar continues to weigh on futures. Some estimate US soybean plantings near 14-18 pct. US domestic soybean basis remains firm on favorable crush margins. SN has dropped from a recent high near 17.23 to overnight low near 16.05. USDA report this week. Trade estimates US 2021/22 soybean carryout near 225 mil bu vs previous 260 and 2022/23 US soybean carryout near 317.
Corn futures are lower. Some look for lower prices like last year at this time. Forecast of better US Midwest planting weather offers resistance. Domestic basis remains firm on slow farmer selling and increase ethanol margins. Some see 50 pct of US corn crop will get planted by May 20 and the remainder of acres by June 1. CN has dropped from a recent high near 8.24 to overnight near 7.71. Russia attack on Ukraine is intensifying with more shelling on Ukraine ports and Ukraine rail and infrastructure. Trade estimates US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,412 mil bu vs previous 1.440 and 2022/23 US corn carryout near 1,352.
Wheat futures are higher. Some liquidation of long corn and short Chicago wheat spread offered support to WN. WN is up 16 cents and near 11.25. KWN is up 24 cents and near 11.94. MWN is u0 24 cents and near 12.33. Talk of drier EU and US HRW weather and wet US and Canada weather and concern over Black Sea wheat export pace supports wheat futures. Talk that India may not have additional wheat for export and dry weather across Pakistan and Bangladesh also offers support. Trade estimates US 2021/22 wheat carryout near 686 mil bu vs previous 678 and US 2022/23 carryout near 659.
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