Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mostly lower. SN is unch and near 17.17. SX is near15.28. SMN is near 465.6. BON is near 79.17. CN is down 2 cents and near 8.07. CZ is near 7.44. WN is down 2 cents and near 10.95. KWN is down 2 cents and near 11.66. MWN is up 1 cent and near 11.73.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is lower
There is talk that Wednesdays corn, soybean and soyoil rally may have been due to short call traders liquidating positions. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated at 950-1,500 mt old crop and 400-800 new. US prices are competitive to buyers. China buying US has slowed. Weekly US soybean sales are estimated at 300-1,000 mt old crop and 200-950 new. US competitive after July. Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated a 150-750 mt. Russia wheat export prices are a discount to US.
Wheat fundamentals are bullish with 2 week US south plains forecast warm, dry and windy. Crop ratings are in decline and talk of lower harvested acres are on the increase. US north plains remains wet slowing plantings there. Canada prairies are wet and cold. US HRW export prices are premium to other sellers but some feel prices need to rally to ration any export demand.
Corn fundamentals are mixed. Looks like US Midwest weather forecast may be turning warmer and drier which could help start planting. Brazil is dry and could be lowering their 2nd corn crop. Domestic Brazil corn price hit a new high near 8.52. Ukraine war could limit their corn exports and increase demand for US. Dalian corn futures are higher.
July soybean futures are lower but still above 17.00. SN-SX spread made new highs near 1.87. SK is just 50 cents from all-time high. 1/3 of China population is on lockdown or more that US population. This could lower their commodity import demand and their economy. This could impact value of their imported commodities. Still, there is talk China may have bought 4 June Brazil cargoes and US July and August. Soyoil prices continue to gain on tightening global vegoil stocks. Matif new crop rapeseed prices made new highs. Canada canola futures made new highs and over 1.00 per pound. Dalian soyoil and rapeoil futures are making new highs.
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