Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Quiet before the storm? Grains are mixed. SK is up 7 cents and near 16.26. SMK is near 464.4. BOK is near 71.98. CK is down 1 cent and near 7.55. CZ is near 7.04. WK is down 5 cents and near 10.33. KWK is down 5 cents and near 10.80. MWK is down 1 cent and near 11.08.
US stocks are higher. Crude is near $97. Weakness linked to more countries releasing strategic reserves and China Covid lockdown.
Weekly US corn export sales are est near 475-1,000 mt old crop and 100-400 mt new. Conab is out today with new corn crop est. They were 112 mmt vs USDA 114. Some have increased their est but USDA may stay near 114 due to recent drier weather pattern. USDA could lower Ukraine corn exports. Ukraine has shipped 20 mmt to date but may not reach USDA 27.5. US Census corn exports to date are 190 mil bu higher than inspections. CN needs to add demand premium. CZ needs to add US weather premium.
Weekly US soybean export sales are est near 500-1,150 mt old crop and 100-400 mt new. Conab is out today with new soybean crop est. USDA is near 127.0. Trade guess is 125. USDA has dropped Brazil crop 600 mil bu since Feb. Brazil June fob is +20 US, July +45, August +70. There are no Brazil fob quotes Sep-Jan 2023. SN needs to add demand premium. SX needs to add US demand premium.
Weekly US wheat export sales are est near 100-750. Global wheat trade matrix is a mess. Russia is shipping small quantities of wheat. USDA may be too high with their Russia, Ukraine and EU export estimate. KWK needs to add US weather premium. WK needs to add Ukraine war premium. MWN needs to add US spring wheat crop premium.
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