Global Ag News for Apr 4.22

TODAY

Wheat prices overnight are up 8 in SRW, up 12 1/4 in HRW, up 11 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 8 1/4; Soybeans up 6 1/4; Soymeal up $0.39; Soyoil down 0.16.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 50 1/2 in SRW, down 34 1/4 in HRW, up 8 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans down 77; Soymeal down $2.75; Soyoil down 1.00.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 13 1/2 in SRW, down 4 1/2 in HRW, down 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 5 1/2; Soybeans down 29 1/4; Soymeal down $13.60; Soyoil up 1.10.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 31% in SRW, up 29% in HRW, up 11% in HRS; Corn is up 26%; Soybeans up 19%; Soymeal up 10%; Soyoil up 27%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans up 5 yuan; Soymeal down 131; Soyoil down 12; Palm oil down 186; Corn down 4 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 120 ringgit (+2.16%) at 5686.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,185 SRW Wheat contracts; 1 Oats; 0 Corn; 132 Soybeans; 98 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 154 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 1 were: SRW Wheat up 336 contracts, HRW Wheat down 353, Corn up 1,750, Soybeans down 4,911, Soymeal up 1,492, Soyoil down 275.

Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers Monday, mostly south. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures below normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Isolated showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers Wednesday, north Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday, near normal Sunday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Isolated showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

The player sheet for 4/1 had funds: net sellers of 3,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 4,000 corn, sellers of 14,500 soybeans, sellers of 9,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 3,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 136,000 tonnes of U.S. corn to unknown destinations for shipment in the 2021/22 marketing year.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia’s state grains buyer SAGO is seeking 355,000 tonnes of wheat in an import tender for delivery September-November 2022, traders said on March 31.
• FEED GRAIN TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued an international tender to purchase up to 60,000 tonnes of animal feed barley, 60,000 tonnes of feed corn and 60,000 tonnes of soymeal
• SOYOIL TENDER: Iran’s state purchasing agency GTC has issued an international tender to purchase about 30,000 tonnes of soyoil
• WHEAT TENDER: Iraq’s state grains buyer has extended the deadline for the validity of price offers in a tender to buy a nominal 50,000 tonnes of hard milling wheat
• BARLEY TENDER: A buyer in Qatar has issued a tender to buy an estimated 105,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase 40,000 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat

U.S. Corn Used for Ethanol at 405.2M Bu in February

U.S. Soybean Crushings at 174M Bushels in February: USDA

Brazil 2021/22 Total Corn Output Seen At 118.15 Million Tns Versus 91.47 Million Tns In Previous Season -Safras & Mercado

• BRAZIL 2021/22 TOTAL CORN OUTPUT SEEN AT 118.15 MILLION TNS VERSUS 91.47 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS SEASON -SAFRAS & MERCADO
• BRAZIL 2021/22 SECOND CORN CROP SEEN AT 84.58 MILLION TNS VERSUS 57.85 MILLION TNS IN 2020/21 -SAFRAS & MERCADO

SovEcon Hikes Russia Wheat Export Outlook on ‘Rapid’ March Sales

Russia 2021-22 wheat exports are now seen at 33.9m tons, up 0.4m tons from an earlier outlook, despite the impact of the war, consultant SovEcon says in an emailed note.

• Increase due to high world prices, weak ruble and “rapid” 2H March shipments
• “Some wheat demand had to switch from Ukraine to Russia”
• Problems with payments and lack of vessels in early March “mostly resolved”
• Russia likely to fulfill the wheat-export quota it set for the latter part of the season, unless additional trade restrictions announced
• NOTE: Country has an 8m-ton quota for mid-February through June

StoneX Sees Brazil Corn at Record as Firm Lifts Crop Estimates

StoneX raises estimates for Brazil’s soybeans and corn crops for 2021-22 period in April report.

• Total soybean crop now estimated at 122m tons, while export estimates were lifted to 76m tons, StoneX says Friday in report
  • Yields for Mato Grosso and Goiás states were adjusted higher
• Total soybean crop is still 15.9% lower than the potential 145m tons estimated at the start of the cycle
  • Soybean ending stocks seen at 2.2m tons
• Total corn production estimated to reach 118m tons, 2.5 m tons above March estimate
  • Corn winter crop may reach a record 91.9m tons, up 55% from year-earlier period
• Corn exports should reach 40m tons, while internal demand is affirmed at 75.5m tons
  • Ending stocks could reach 12m tons, 2.5 m tons above prior estimate

Ukraine Sees 2022 Spring Sowing Area Down 21% Y/y

Projected areas under Ukraine’s spring crops will probably total 13.4m hectares this year, about 21% less than in 2021, Agriculture Ministry says on website.

• Planting has begun in 21 regions out of 24, not counting annexed Crimea; that’s more than this time last year due to favorable weather
• Total area sown so far includes:
  • 81,000 ha of spring wheat
  • 327,300 ha of spring barley
  • 33,700 ha of sunflower
  • 10,400 ha of soybean
• NOTE: Ministry corrected its data on sowing areas it provided on Mar. 29

War Set to Drive Malaysia’s Palm Oil Stockpiles to One-Year Low

• Reserves likely to drop in March as exports jump, survey shows
• Production from second-biggest grower to stage strong rebound

Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia probably slumped to a one-year low as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted supplies of sunflower oil and sent demand for the tropical oil soaring.

Inventories fell 2% from a month earlier to 1.49 million tons in March, according to the median of 10 estimates in a Bloomberg survey of analysts, traders and plantation executives. That would be a fifth month of declines and make reserves the smallest since March 2021.

Exports from the Southeast Asian nation jumped 9.1% to 1.20 million tons, according to the survey, after dropping every month since December. Production of crude palm oil likely surged 17.5% to 1.34 million tons, set for the first gain since October, although still almost 6% lower than a year ago.

Edible Oil Gets 24/7 Police Scrutiny in Indonesia

Indonesia’s police will be deployed for a 24-hour surveillance of cooking oil production and distribution as rising food prices become a key political issue in the country.

The task force made up of police officers, intelligence agents and government employees will make sure companies are producing bulk cooking oil as targeted and selling it for below the 14,000 rupiah (98 cents) a liter price cap, said Police Chief Listyo Sigit Wibowo.

“Our findings on the ground show that cooking oil is not yet available in all markets and we need to take further measures,” Wibowo told reporters on Monday, after meeting with Industry Minister Agus Gumiwang Kartasasmita.

The government has struggled to fulfill demand for edible oil in Indonesia, despite the country being the world’s biggest palm oil producer. Surging prices of cooking oil have helped push inflation to accelerate to a two-year high in March, prompting President Joko Widodo to announce cash aid to lower-income families and small businesses that need edible oil to operate.

Malaysia March 1-31 Palm Oil Exports to EU 291,428 Tons: SGS

India aims to export 10 million tonne of wheat worth $4 billion in 2022-23

India is aiming to export a record 10 million tonne (MT) of wheat in 2022-23 amid rising global demand because of the Russia-Ukraine war.

“We are working with several other ministries -agriculture, railways, shipping – as well as exporters and state governments to increase our wheat exports significantly in the current fiscal,” Piyush Goyal, minister for commerce and industry, said on Sunday.

According to estimates by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGF), India exported a record 7 MT of wheat in 2021-22 which was valued at $2.05 billion. Around 50% of the shipments were to Bangladesh in the last fiscal.

In 2022-23, India is likely to export wheat worth around $4 billion given that prices are expected to rise in the coming months to around $400 to $430 a tonne (inclusive of all costs), especially in North Africa and South-East Asia countries. The Current prices are in the range of $370-$380 a tonne.

Meanwhile, the commerce ministry has set up a task force on wheat exports with representatives from various ministries, including commerce, shipping and railways, and exporters.

CORN/CEPEA: Downward trend of corn prices weakens in BR

Corn prices continue to fade in Brazil, however, after Wednesday, 30, many farmers left the national spot market, weakening the downward trend of quotations. On Monday and Tuesday, values were dropping more steeply, since sellers needed cash flow and agreed to lower asking prices.

As for purchasers, many of them had already replenished stocks when prices were fading more steeply, reducing acquisitions towards the end of the week. Thus, liquidity has been low.

Between March 24 and 31, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn (Campinas, SP) decreased by a steep 6.2%, closing at BRL 93.09 per 60-kilo bag on Thursday, 31. On the other hand, the month average of the Index closed at BRL 99.69/bag, 3% higher than that in February. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, the prices paid to corn farmers (over-the-counter market) decreased by 8.6; in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values dropped by 6.8%.

PORTS – In early March, the premiums at the port of Santos (SP), for shipment in April, were at USD 2.2/bushel for sales and at USD 1.8/bushel to be purchased, while late in the month, exporters resumed prioritizing the deals for shipment in the second semester of 2022.

At the port of Paranaguá (PR), values decreased by a slight 0.3% in March, but in the last seven days, quotations dropped by a steep 11.5%, to BRL 90.54/bag on March 31. It is important to highlight that the prices at ports had been higher than the corn Index in Campinas until the beginning of this week. The US dollar decreased by 7.5% in March, ending the month at BRL 4.761.

CROPS – Sowing of the second crop of corn is almost over in Mato Grosso. Farmers have been optimistic about the rains forecast for the next 30 days, which may favor the development of the crops sown out of the ideal period.

In Paraná, according to Seab/Deral, 97% of the second crop of corn has been sown. The weather is favoring the harvesting of the summer crop, which was at 85% by March 28. In Mato Grosso do Sul, 95.1% of crops had been sown by March 25, according to Famasul.

In Rio Grande do Sul, 75% of the summer crop had been harvested by March 31, according to Emater/RS. In Santa Catarina, 93% of the summer crop had been harvested by March 26, according to Conab. However, the low volumes harvested in Goiás and in northeastern BR press down the national average, which was at 47.1% on March 26, according to Conab.

Brazilian Fertilizer Prices to Rise as Putin’s War Persists

Brazil’s fertilizer market will likely remain pressured by supply constraints in the near term, driving prices to new highs. Potash jumped another $150 a metric ton this week; Brazil sourced 6 million tons annually from sanctioned Russia and Belarus. Phosphate availability also remains a concern, with prices up $50 a ton, alongside a notable shrink in volume offered.

Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Brazil increased its reliance on Russian phosphate (imports up 93% from October-January) and decreased sourcing from Morocco (down 43%). Moroccan phosphate now carries an additional premium due to higher input costs. The country mostly used Russian ammonia to produce phosphates, while European ammonia production has slowed due to high natural gas prices.

Fertilizer Buyers Paying Record Prices as War Squelches Supply

Urea and phosphate keep climbing in New Orleans (NOLA), Brazil, Europe and the Middle East. Tampa ammonia closed at a record $1,625 a metric ton (mt) for April, up 43% from March. India’s tender program could resume in April at record urea prices. Potash jumped in NOLA and Brazil to almost 2x last month’s Chinese annual contract.

China calls for measures to ensure stable corn production, supply

China will adopt strong and effective measures to ensure the stable production and supply of corn and rice, state media cited Chinese Vice Premier Hu Chunhua as saying on Friday.

The entire nation would make great effort to boost corn output to meet the gap between corn demand and production, Hu was quoted as saying during a video conference. Areas with declining corn planting should speed up the recovery, Hu said.

He emphasized that joint efforts should be made to ensure corn planting areas and output in the corn regions stabilise at last year’s levels.

China should strengthen regulation on the demand for the processing of corn, and strictly control the use of corn for fuel, Hu was quoted as saying.

This year’s corn production is threatened by China’s recent COVID-19 curbs that caused a supply crunch of fertilisers to the country’s northeastern bread basket, though Beijing has repeatedly called for all-out efforts to guarantee successful harvests.

U.S. senators call for planting on conserved land in response to Ukraine crisis

Two senators are joining farm groups and other lawmakers in calling on the U.S. Department of Agriculture to allow farmers to plant conserved acres this spring in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Aid groups have warned that global hunger will rise this year as a result of disruptions to the planting season in Ukraine, a major grain exporter.

Republican Senators Marco Rubio from Florida and Cynthia Lummis from Wyoming sent a letter to Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack on March 31 calling on the USDA to allow farmers to plant acres enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) without penalty.

“Allowing crop production on CRP lands is a critical step for stabilizing food prices that have skyrocketed in recent months, and to help American growers fulfill the unmet global demand for grains that threatens the lives of tens of millions of people,” the senators wrote.

Senator John Boozman, a Republican from Arkansas and ranking member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, also asked the USDA in March to allow for CRP planting.

The USDA is opposed to the idea, according to a letter sent from Vilsack to the National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) on March 31.

“Quickly converting (CRP) land to crop production is clearly unfeasible” and would have negative long-term consequences for the climate and land, the letter said.

Farm groups, including NGFA, called on Vilsack this month to allow farmers to plant on the more than 4 million acres (1.6 million hectares) of “prime farmland” currently enrolled in CRP. The program pays farmers to fallow acres under 10- or 15-year contracts.

High costs and scarce availability of fertilizer and other materials has also muted farmer interest in planting more acres. In an annual survey of planting intentions, farmers said they would be planting just 214,000 acres (86,603 hectares) more than in 2021, a 0.1% increase.

The European Union has already moved to allow farmers to plant on fallow land in response to the war in Ukraine and is distributing aid to help them do so.

U.S. Beef Production Falls 3.2% This Week, Pork Rises: USDA