Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is up 5 cents and near 16.69. SMK is near 477.2. BOK is near 73.23. CK is down 5 cents and near 7.43. WK is down 10 cents and near 10.47. KWK is down 11 cents near 10.59. MWK is down 11 cents and near 10.66.
Ukraine war continues. Possible peace talks today. Today this is bearish grains. US inflation continues. Energy prices lower of fear of lower China demand. China and EU economies slowing. US next? US 10 day weather forecast calls for rains from MN down Miss river into AR and Delta. Temps above normal WCB west. Great lakes cold.
Wheat futures are lower. US export sales remain slow. For now, India, EU and Australia exports are offsetting drop in Black Sea. Some Russia wheat is being exported. Talk that Russia may shift the war to east Ukraine could help Ukraine harvest fall crops and seed west and central spring crops. US south plains have seen improved weather. Still, some feel that hot/dry weather will return in April. USDA rated KS wheat crop 32 G/E vs 25 previous, OK 18/21, TX 7/6, CO 11/19, NE 27/36, IL 59. Egypt said they are done buying wheat until May. WK like Crude is now trading below the 20 day moving average for the first time since February.
Corn futures are lower. US export sales remain slow. Some are lowering US 2021/22 exports. South America corn premiums lower. Talk that Russia may shift the war to east Ukraine could help Ukraine seed west and central spring crops. What about their ability to rail and export corn? Month end, quarter end and USDA report key to corn prices this week. CK like Crude are now trading below the 20 day moving average for the first time since January.
Soybean futures are slightly higher. Higher World vegoil prices and China buying US soybean supportive. India bought Russia sunoil for $2,150 vs $1,650 pre-Ukraine war. There is concern that China are using cheaper feed additives that could reduce their soybean imports to 90-92 mmt vs USDA 94 and offer resistance to nearby soybean futures. China soybean, soymeal, soyoil, and palmoil futures are all lower on concern about China demand. Abiove est Brazil soybean crop at 125 mmt down 10.5 from previous est and vs USDA 127. Crush is est near 48 mmt vs USDA 46. Exports 77.7 vs USDA 78.8. Month end, quarter end and USDA report key to soybean prices this week. SK like Crude are now trading below the 20 day moving average for the first time since January.
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