Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. Risk off. SK is down 11 cents and near 16.89. SMK is near 485.4. BOK is near 73.69. CK is down 4 cents and near 7.44. WK is down 15 cents and near 10.70. KWK is down 14 cents and near 10.80. MWK is down 9 cents and near 10.73.
US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. Gold and copper are lower. Dalian soybeans, palmoil, soyoil, soymeal and corn are lower.
Weekly US soybean export sales were only 412 mt vs 1,730 last week. Total commit is near 54.0 mmt vs 60.6 last year. Slow demand is offering resistance to futures. USDA March 31 stocks and acreage report key with trade estimating US soybean acres near 88.9 vs 87.2 ly and stocks 1,888 vs 1,562 ly. US 2022 soybean crop is est near 4,565 mil bu vs 4,435 ly.
Weekly US corn export sales were 979 mt vs 1,836 last week. Total commit is near 53.0 mmt vs 64.9 ly. Trade still waiting for China to switch 6 mmt of Ukraine corn exports to US. Some have now dropped their US corn export estimate from 2,800 to 2,650. This adds to US carryout. USDA March 31 stocks and acreage report key with trade estimating US corn acres near 92.0 vs 93.4 ly and stocks 7,864 vs 7,696 ly. US 2022 corn crop is est near 14,980 mil bu vs 15,115 ly. Trade estimates US 2022 sorghum acres near 6.8 vs 7.3 ly.
US south plains moisture helping HRW 2022 crop especially east and south. Forecast is drier. Weekly US wheat export sales were only 155 mt vs 477 last week. Total commit is near 18.9 mmt vs 24.8 ly. USDA March 31 stocks and acreage report key with trade estimating US wheat acres near 47.9 vs 46.7 ly and stocks 1,039 vs 1,311 ly. US winter wheat acres are est near 34.4 vs 33.6 ly. Spring wheat 11.8 vs 11.4 ly. US 2022 wheat crop is est near 1,960 mil bu vs 1,646 ly. 2022 US spring crop is estimated near 540 mil bu vs 331 ly.
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